{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09d50cf2-0664-46b3-a9de-fc5b2e729c6c", "symbol": "RSPH", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR S&P 500 EQL WGT HEALTHCARE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.656, "architecture_energy": 78.437, "architecture_maturity": 14.712, "architecture_confidence": 72.515, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.63, "rotation_up": 77.27, "upward_expansion": 91.86, "deceleration": 45.89, "rotation_down": 12.45, "downward_expansion": 16.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.673333, 34.131628, 32.935486, 32.397673 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 35.54, "trend_reference": 32.049639, "distance_from_trend": 0.108905, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.037646, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183182, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.873739, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.08921, "excess_performance": -0.036415, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.108905, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019116, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183182, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15524, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008737, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11345, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08921, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.402887, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 458441, "relative_activity": 0.775727, "balance": 1.402887, "dry_up": 0.817295, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032683, "annualized_volatility": 0.172647, "from_high_reference": -0.001405, "from_low_reference": 0.269582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.049639, "fair_value_reference": 30.037646, "structural_low": 29.56, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.005798, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.00652, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.037766, "worst_return": -0.067508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.008433, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.039985, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.09271, "worst_return": -0.15866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.002759, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.057207, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.043472, "worst_return": -0.086585, "sufficient": true }, { 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32.690379, 31.791994, 31.706819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.99, "volume": 790860, "typical_volume": 587421.8, "trend": 31.810971, "fair_value": 29.931765, "relative_strength": 0.461095, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.93033, "energy": 83.566468, "activity_lines": [ 33.85714, 33.051399, 32.040688, 31.851986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.8, "volume": 395584, "typical_volume": 583656.3, "trend": 31.868631, "fair_value": 29.958775, "relative_strength": 0.509438, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.339469, "energy": 80.543706, "activity_lines": [ 33.962, 33.314946, 32.267516, 31.980311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.76, "volume": 287143, "typical_volume": 579235.55, "trend": 31.96226, "fair_value": 29.996465, "relative_strength": 2.181022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.67159, "energy": 76.359224, "activity_lines": [ 34.23, 33.686487, 32.574541, 32.166851 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.54, "volume": 458441, "typical_volume": 590982.4, "trend": 32.049639, "fair_value": 30.037646, "relative_strength": 0.873739, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.656346, "energy": 78.43678, "activity_lines": [ 34.673333, 34.131628, 32.935486, 32.397673 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }