{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09db2095-3e0a-46ff-88af-1e9a4921394a", "symbol": "TKT", "name": "T.Krungthai Industries Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.914, "architecture_energy": 42.528, "architecture_maturity": 38.405, "architecture_confidence": 76.71, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.6, "rotation_up": 58.84, "upward_expansion": 83.45, "deceleration": 45.7, "rotation_down": 14.43, "downward_expansion": 7.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.751333, 0.742, 0.736762, 0.729484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.76, "trend_reference": 0.720333, "distance_from_trend": 0.055067, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.323141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.425609, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.630322, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070423, "excess_performance": -0.121903, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055067, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022233, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.425609, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079763, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176303, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157944, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070423, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.978787, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28700, "relative_activity": 0.159529, "balance": 1.978787, "dry_up": 0.500125, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073887, "annualized_volatility": 0.386443, "from_high_reference": -0.366667, "from_low_reference": 0.266667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.720333, "fair_value_reference": 1.323141, "structural_low": 0.6, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.025513, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.028428, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.115044, "worst_return": -0.162963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.063195, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.057824, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.023121, "worst_return": -0.148148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.169492, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.144033, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.048387, "worst_return": -0.22963, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028902, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02994, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070588, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.2125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031008, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08871, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008621, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114035, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.189474, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025641, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.26, "volume": 8435600, "typical_volume": 9879425.0, "trend": 2.516667, "fair_value": 1.870962, "relative_strength": -5.247872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.738, 0.732727, 0.729333, 0.723333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.74, "volume": 56100, "typical_volume": 192290.0, "trend": 0.718333, "fair_value": 1.341538, "relative_strength": -23.544544, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.585282, "energy": 34.628755, "activity_lines": [ 0.740667, 0.734545, 0.731048, 0.724839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.75, "volume": 15100, "typical_volume": 190280.0, "trend": 0.719667, "fair_value": 1.332115, "relative_strength": -20.403669, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.300761, "energy": 38.457065, "activity_lines": [ 0.746, 0.737636, 0.733524, 0.726882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.76, "volume": 28700, "typical_volume": 179905.0, "trend": 0.720333, "fair_value": 1.323141, "relative_strength": -17.630322, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.914216, "energy": 42.527914, "activity_lines": [ 0.751333, 0.742, 0.736762, 0.729484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }