{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09dd9c87-bf87-403e-8bd1-ffdb5ba6acab", "symbol": "CXSE3", "name": "Caixa Seguridade Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.945, "architecture_energy": 48.724, "architecture_maturity": 58.414, "architecture_confidence": 59.836, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.02, "rotation_up": 48.44, "upward_expansion": 74.09, "deceleration": 71.44, "rotation_down": 26.02, "downward_expansion": 12.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.25733, 20.255832, 19.44787, 18.973842 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.32, "trend_reference": 18.350775, "distance_from_trend": 0.052817, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.710883, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.4091, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.398058, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.082453, "excess_performance": 0.139501, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052817, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088358, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.4091, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023152, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.123981, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123308, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082453, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.770987, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46079900, "relative_activity": 2.340928, "balance": 0.770987, "dry_up": 1.654203, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047727, "annualized_volatility": 0.243294, "from_high_reference": -0.127473, "from_low_reference": 0.54338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.350775, "fair_value_reference": 13.710883, "structural_low": 16.896053, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.030097, "positive_rate": 0.655172, "directional_follow_through": 0.655172, "median_excess_return": -0.002769, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.128609, "worst_return": -0.088735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.058948, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.018019, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.208729, "worst_return": -0.05802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.152156, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.048838, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.54543, "worst_return": -0.098315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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21.073239, 20.261539, 19.283184, 18.788439 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.892948, "volume": 30613000, "typical_volume": 18367940.0, "trend": 18.23627, "fair_value": 13.641373, "relative_strength": 12.583048, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.968299, "energy": 74.556775, "activity_lines": [ 20.769874, 20.332708, 19.397772, 18.903924 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.32, "volume": 46079900, "typical_volume": 19684455.0, "trend": 18.350775, "fair_value": 13.710883, "relative_strength": 12.398058, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.945078, "energy": 48.723709, "activity_lines": [ 20.25733, 20.255832, 19.44787, 18.973842 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }