{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09eeb11c-f9b3-4099-a42b-9464820f9b44", "symbol": "6664", "name": "Group Up Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.572, "architecture_energy": 34.986, "architecture_maturity": 2.473, "architecture_confidence": 63.276, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.07, "rotation_up": 17.2, "upward_expansion": 21.63, "deceleration": 52.51, "rotation_down": 56.28, "downward_expansion": 48.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 341.656248, 349.674714, 369.459568, 363.526055 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 348.5, "trend_reference": 346.450915, "distance_from_trend": 0.005915, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 233.061147, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.495316, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.208876, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.24408, "excess_performance": -0.197292, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005915, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08965, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.495316, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.422258, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172089, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227996, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.24408, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.043205, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1558145, "relative_activity": 0.247172, "balance": 1.043205, "dry_up": 0.262049, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118276, "annualized_volatility": 0.53442, "from_high_reference": -0.279809, "from_low_reference": 0.682137 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 346.450915, "fair_value_reference": 233.061147, "structural_low": 240.247452, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.002379, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.038401, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.146048, "worst_return": -0.084314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024561, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.042868, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.17608, "worst_return": -0.154902, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.279894, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.28096, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.940199, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.103297, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.14, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002272, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128146, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007246, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 332.0, "volume": 1071264, "typical_volume": 6356034.25, "trend": 344.350122, "fair_value": 231.608477, "relative_strength": -18.558093, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.939716, "energy": 39.134148, "activity_lines": [ 340.773311, 351.786413, 372.307874, 363.258321 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 348.5, "volume": 1558145, "typical_volume": 6303897.25, "trend": 346.450915, "fair_value": 233.061147, "relative_strength": -17.208876, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.571649, "energy": 34.98617, "activity_lines": [ 341.656248, 349.674714, 369.459568, 363.526055 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }