{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09f109bf-b96b-4030-b795-c4f8aaad92c3", "symbol": "7077", "name": "ALiNK Internet, Inc.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-02", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 49.979, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.122, "architecture_energy": 10.355, "architecture_maturity": 28.534, "architecture_confidence": 75.93, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.18, "rotation_up": 21.05, "upward_expansion": 35.7, "deceleration": 84.47, "rotation_down": 35.38, "downward_expansion": 41.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 991.533333, 993.109091, 996.72381, 995.176344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 996.0, "trend_reference": 989.933333, "distance_from_trend": 0.006128, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1032.057692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034938, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.670992, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.041841, "excess_performance": -0.244021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006128, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02087, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034938, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011305, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17671, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113317, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041841, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.191235, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5100, "relative_activity": 1.478261, "balance": 1.191235, "dry_up": 1.413043, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016682, "annualized_volatility": 0.101106, "from_high_reference": -0.102703, "from_low_reference": 0.060703 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 989.933333, "fair_value_reference": 1032.057692, "structural_low": 951.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015102, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.081809, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.011168, "worst_return": -0.058615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.020992, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.11456, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.180698, "worst_return": -0.116341, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.063943, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.289018, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.156057, "worst_return": -0.086832, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.011965, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.449497, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.082136, "worst_return": -0.058206, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044617, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092176, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.07754, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01215, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090056, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034448, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036275, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034644, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013359, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03235, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03373, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-09-04", "end": "2026-10-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011168, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 1109.0, "volume": 20600, "typical_volume": 157280.0, "trend": 1089.633333, "fair_value": 1382.467949, "relative_strength": -1.226788, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", 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rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.556784, "energy": 17.202486, "activity_lines": [ 999.866667, 1005.345455, 999.552381, 996.202151 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 985.0, "volume": 8600, "typical_volume": 3425.0, "trend": 995.666667, "fair_value": 1035.679487, "relative_strength": -17.368735, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.405811, "energy": 25.480386, "activity_lines": [ 992.733333, 1001.745455, 998.380952, 995.290323 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 987.0, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 3350.0, "trend": 992.566667, "fair_value": 1034.49359, "relative_strength": -15.184141, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.360909, "energy": 27.471265, "activity_lines": [ 988.533333, 998.345455, 997.485714, 994.731183 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 994.0, "volume": 3400, "typical_volume": 3310.0, "trend": 989.533333, "fair_value": 1033.647436, "relative_strength": -15.204719, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.400356, "energy": 28.392864, "activity_lines": [ 988.4, 996.436364, 997.333333, 994.823656 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 988.0, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 3365.0, "trend": 989.0, "fair_value": 1032.730769, "relative_strength": -16.690774, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.188249, "energy": 22.154242, "activity_lines": [ 988.066667, 993.727273, 996.638095, 994.724731 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 996.0, "volume": 5100, "typical_volume": 3450.0, "trend": 989.933333, "fair_value": 1032.057692, "relative_strength": -17.670992, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.122351, "energy": 10.355447, "activity_lines": [ 991.533333, 993.109091, 996.72381, 995.176344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }