{ "ticker": { "uuid": "09f49f70-8738-42b8-b193-b7af0c0e6d5c", "symbol": "ITSA4", "name": "Ita\u00fasa S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.54, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.776, "architecture_energy": 6.861, "architecture_maturity": 21.061, "architecture_confidence": 83.493, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.23, "rotation_up": 38.87, "upward_expansion": 34.05, "deceleration": 41.29, "rotation_down": 25.19, "downward_expansion": 20.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.538, 13.500253, 13.378953, 13.440705 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.21, "trend_reference": 13.482334, "distance_from_trend": -0.020199, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.315757, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.418028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.645465, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.056915, "excess_performance": 0.000134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020199, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055072, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.418028, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106659, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046455, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036167, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056915, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.742434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104062900, "relative_activity": 1.00684, "balance": 0.742434, "dry_up": 0.820084, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042482, "annualized_volatility": 0.249568, "from_high_reference": -0.122277, "from_low_reference": 0.395122 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.482334, "fair_value_reference": 9.315757, "structural_low": 12.407189, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046236, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.027946, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.127638, "worst_return": -0.06654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.08964, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.019442, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.138896, "worst_return": -0.122064, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.030918, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000605, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.226761, "worst_return": -0.091018, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.294195, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.072022, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.552825, "worst_return": -0.059874, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121627, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05914, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040795, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020985, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003314, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017548, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032801, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.223993, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116893, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130993, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027587, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05458, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041912, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02939, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.340202, "volume": 159360310, "typical_volume": 117661347.3, "trend": 5.881981, "fair_value": 5.512924, "relative_strength": 5.871817, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": 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"modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.339869, "energy": 37.801253, "activity_lines": [ 13.657333, 13.395695, 13.363459, 13.426109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.82, "volume": 76247800, "typical_volume": 107796005.0, "trend": 13.440749, "fair_value": 9.272438, "relative_strength": 6.252399, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.609274, "energy": 35.961881, "activity_lines": [ 13.711333, 13.513522, 13.402154, 13.455592 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.21, "volume": 104062900, "typical_volume": 103355915.0, "trend": 13.482334, "fair_value": 9.315757, "relative_strength": 4.645465, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.77635, "energy": 6.861283, "activity_lines": [ 13.538, 13.500253, 13.378953, 13.440705 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }