{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "09f8c719-59a7-4c76-a6db-f7380db91c55",
    "symbol": "605169",
    "name": "Xinjiang Hongtong Natural Gas Co., Ltd.",
    "exchange": "SHH",
    "country": "CN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "000001.SS",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -48.064,
    "architecture_energy": 43.817,
    "architecture_maturity": 100.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 86.499,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.53,
        "rotation_up": 27.48,
        "upward_expansion": 19.96,
        "deceleration": 46.94,
        "rotation_down": 38.37,
        "downward_expansion": 67.63
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        10.346615,
        11.030012
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 9.95,
    "trend_reference": 11.914022,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.16485,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 10.780013,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076996,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -24.435504,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.277939,
    "excess_performance": -0.234735,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.16485,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.107848,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.076996,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.266854,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.244355,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.118624,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.277939,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.325906,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 12908204,
      "relative_activity": 0.730947,
      "balance": 1.325906,
      "dry_up": 0.828381,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.082427,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.433591,
      "from_high_reference": -0.540203,
      "from_low_reference": 0.135845
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 11.914022,
      "fair_value_reference": 10.780013,
      "structural_low": 8.76,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 23,
        "median_return": 0.007881,
        "positive_rate": 0.521739,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.478261,
        "median_excess_return": 0.007161,
        "regime_survival": 0.782609,
        "best_return": 0.141145,
        "worst_return": -0.147239,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
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        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.056673,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
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        "worst_return": -0.154982,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.08086,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.084796,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": -0.083473,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
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        "worst_return": -0.205459,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "New",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-01-03",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "return": 0.061966,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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      {
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 20301700.95,
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        "fair_value": 10.78153,
        "relative_strength": -25.289127,
        "stage": 4,
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        "energy": 62.394957,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
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        "typical_volume": 19345985.5,
        "trend": 12.021688,
        "fair_value": 10.781495,
        "relative_strength": -23.151332,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.440341,
        "energy": 51.627058,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 9.95,
        "volume": 12908204,
        "typical_volume": 17659571.5,
        "trend": 11.914022,
        "fair_value": 10.780013,
        "relative_strength": -24.435504,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -48.06431,
        "energy": 43.816905,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}