{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a01df36-37d7-4fa4-8858-2df7d69162da", "symbol": "DOU", "name": "Douglas AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.185, "architecture_energy": 45.516, "architecture_maturity": 90.419, "architecture_confidence": 87.31, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.19, "rotation_up": 28.4, "upward_expansion": 7.56, "deceleration": 60.22, "rotation_down": 43.61, "downward_expansion": 78.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.165333, 8.188182, 8.564429, 9.027548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.4, "trend_reference": 9.670333, "distance_from_trend": -0.131364, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.284552, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.411952, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.434565, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.252669, "excess_performance": -0.317309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.131364, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116111, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.411952, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054498, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.274346, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.252669, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.609476, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 485832, "relative_activity": 0.943208, "balance": 0.609476, "dry_up": 0.935992, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074084, "annualized_volatility": 0.351363, "from_high_reference": -0.366516, "from_low_reference": 0.105263 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.670333, "fair_value_reference": 14.284552, "structural_low": 7.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.006897, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.035486, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.105316, "worst_return": -0.210526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.185557, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.301982, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.185557, "worst_return": -0.185557, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.843422, "energy": 68.31094, "activity_lines": [ 8.291333, 8.512182, 9.15619, 9.646409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.05, "volume": 377318, "typical_volume": 574121.05, "trend": 10.176667, "fair_value": 14.486934, "relative_strength": -28.460561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.198536, "energy": 69.118129, "activity_lines": [ 8.168667, 8.378727, 8.99919, 9.498688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.37, "volume": 338513, "typical_volume": 563703.3, "trend": 10.063, "fair_value": 14.436795, "relative_strength": -24.559198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.404218, "energy": 56.880359, "activity_lines": [ 8.214667, 8.342182, 8.889571, 9.382129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.83, "volume": 520364, "typical_volume": 551412.2, "trend": 9.927333, "fair_value": 14.383081, "relative_strength": -29.777483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.766273, "energy": 58.804214, "activity_lines": [ 8.098667, 8.230182, 8.744762, 9.238065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.05, "volume": 583752, "typical_volume": 542641.6, "trend": 9.785667, "fair_value": 14.332008, "relative_strength": -28.93617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.621124, "energy": 52.099504, "activity_lines": [ 8.075333, 8.174, 8.632571, 9.116946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.4, "volume": 485832, "typical_volume": 515084.8, "trend": 9.670333, "fair_value": 14.284552, "relative_strength": -27.434565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.184937, "energy": 45.515771, "activity_lines": [ 8.165333, 8.188182, 8.564429, 9.027548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }