{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a050938-ea4a-46b4-9966-2437e01f1b76", "symbol": "LIS", "name": "Li-S Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.047, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.517, "architecture_energy": 17.556, "architecture_maturity": 15.777, "architecture_confidence": 77.654, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.56, "rotation_up": 16.23, "upward_expansion": 9.03, "deceleration": 53.94, "rotation_down": 51.42, "downward_expansion": 70.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.130667, 0.131364, 0.132762, 0.131785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.13, "trend_reference": 0.13325, "distance_from_trend": -0.02439, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.149029, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.127686, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.356425, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.071429, "excess_performance": -0.135134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02439, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040216, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.127686, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126824, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133564, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012006, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.597785, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 812692, "relative_activity": 1.508001, "balance": 2.597785, "dry_up": 0.854687, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12574, "annualized_volatility": 0.428013, "from_high_reference": -0.333333, "from_low_reference": 0.130435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.13325, "fair_value_reference": 0.149029, "structural_low": 0.115, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.104516, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.1875, "median_excess_return": -0.093303, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.12069, "worst_return": -0.224138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.132705, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": -0.032258, "worst_return": -0.275862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.211068, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.272068, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.116667, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.417889, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.497561, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.290323, "worst_return": -0.545455, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.363636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.147059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.132667, 0.135545, 0.13281, 0.133161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.13, "volume": 471748, "typical_volume": 576953.0, "trend": 0.135667, "fair_value": 0.151849, "relative_strength": -10.077395, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.589849, "energy": 17.562184, "activity_lines": [ 0.131333, 0.134591, 0.132845, 0.132753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.13, "volume": 225274, "typical_volume": 533315.35, "trend": 0.135, "fair_value": 0.151048, "relative_strength": -9.318418, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.966018, "energy": 14.56488, "activity_lines": [ 0.131, 0.133455, 0.132881, 0.132387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.13, "volume": 332719, "typical_volume": 535951.45, "trend": 0.134333, "fair_value": 0.150054, "relative_strength": -10.905421, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.192427, "energy": 14.279767, "activity_lines": [ 0.131, 0.132364, 0.132845, 0.132065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.13, "volume": 812692, "typical_volume": 538920.2, "trend": 0.13325, "fair_value": 0.149029, "relative_strength": -13.356425, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.517086, "energy": 17.555959, "activity_lines": [ 0.130667, 0.131364, 0.132762, 0.131785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }