{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a072c7f-c0a8-4c9b-a77b-a3b1571b42a6", "symbol": "ZGLD", "name": "Swisscanto (CH) Gold ETF EA CHF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.358, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.178, "architecture_energy": 39.583, "architecture_maturity": 66.191, "architecture_confidence": 65.811, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.19, "rotation_up": 29.54, "upward_expansion": 20.54, "deceleration": 64.06, "rotation_down": 40.68, "downward_expansion": 68.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 994.779985, 989.405447, 1012.074755, 1038.865588 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1039.599976, "trend_reference": 1073.193335, "distance_from_trend": -0.031302, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 776.957245, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.33804, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.864494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.084053, "excess_performance": -0.166936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031302, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005243, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.33804, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132187, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078645, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163265, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084053, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.315656, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46317, "relative_activity": 1.003662, "balance": 0.315656, "dry_up": 0.735666, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033689, "annualized_volatility": 0.214412, "from_high_reference": -0.175706, "from_low_reference": 0.306851 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1073.193335, "fair_value_reference": 776.957245, 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-13.738139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.990669, "energy": 87.467716, "activity_lines": [ 975.233337, 990.74182, 1026.654285, 1054.062367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 985.299988, "volume": 32493, "typical_volume": 51390.8, "trend": 1075.973338, "fair_value": 770.564297, "relative_strength": -11.278796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.207111, "energy": 60.905364, "activity_lines": [ 977.273332, 986.718182, 1019.658569, 1048.088817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 967.599976, "volume": 24861, "typical_volume": 49791.95, "trend": 1074.18667, "fair_value": 773.520066, "relative_strength": -12.995091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.861584, "energy": 62.38595, "activity_lines": [ 973.73999, 980.779996, 1011.929996, 1041.096987 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1039.599976, "volume": 46317, "typical_volume": 46148.0, "trend": 1073.193335, "fair_value": 776.957245, "relative_strength": -7.864494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.177928, "energy": 39.583233, "activity_lines": [ 994.779985, 989.405447, 1012.074755, 1038.865588 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }