{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a0e5098-a49b-4175-869f-e6f09f5fac4e", "symbol": "0061", "name": "W.I.S.E. Yuanta/P-shares CSI 300 ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.735, "architecture_energy": 18.961, "architecture_maturity": 50.178, "architecture_confidence": 75.562, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.16, "rotation_up": 28.77, "upward_expansion": 55.94, "deceleration": 88.05, "rotation_down": 29.86, "downward_expansion": 19.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.878666, 24.942182, 24.86719, 24.610194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.15, "trend_reference": 24.292333, "distance_from_trend": 0.035306, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.673654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.278359, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.650609, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.067487, "excess_performance": -0.311825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035306, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033834, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.278359, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019649, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206506, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026439, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067487, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.479002, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1457060, "relative_activity": 1.275329, "balance": 1.479002, "dry_up": 1.169568, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031656, "annualized_volatility": 0.116382, "from_high_reference": -0.026326, "from_low_reference": 0.352878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.292333, "fair_value_reference": 19.673654, "structural_low": 22.48, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.013473, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.0068, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.050901, "worst_return": -0.053968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.052658, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.029307, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.013395, "worst_return": -0.098119, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.064955, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.061441, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.13986, "worst_return": -0.103783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.049198, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.175853, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.021562, "worst_return": -0.119958, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037715, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026806, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019266, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.28834, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022669, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051715, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068193, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.116992, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00923, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 19.360001, "volume": 2007657, "typical_volume": 845356.1, "trend": 18.942, "fair_value": 21.05859, "relative_strength": -6.956477, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", 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"typical_volume": 1258307.2, "trend": 24.101, "fair_value": 19.548269, "relative_strength": -22.733033, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.230165, "energy": 16.875135, "activity_lines": [ 24.807333, 24.939818, 24.717095, 24.451656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.92, "volume": 1409550, "typical_volume": 1175793.15, "trend": 24.171, "fair_value": 19.590705, "relative_strength": -21.321014, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.017271, "energy": 18.781407, "activity_lines": [ 24.774666, 24.928727, 24.766476, 24.504495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.889999, "volume": 1471011, "typical_volume": 1177809.55, "trend": 24.230667, "fair_value": 19.634359, "relative_strength": -19.953509, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.279901, "energy": 18.686452, "activity_lines": [ 24.770666, 24.913636, 24.806714, 24.550882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.15, "volume": 1457060, "typical_volume": 1142497.15, "trend": 24.292333, "fair_value": 19.673654, "relative_strength": -20.650609, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.734789, "energy": 18.960912, "activity_lines": [ 24.878666, 24.942182, 24.86719, 24.610194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }