{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a0ea0c6-2fee-4373-aa7a-e3eb849d2c4c", "symbol": "603020", "name": "Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.457, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.082, "architecture_energy": 35.699, "architecture_maturity": 62.732, "architecture_confidence": 59.8, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.27, "rotation_up": 16.72, "upward_expansion": 18.89, "deceleration": 69.9, "rotation_down": 65.62, "downward_expansion": 41.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.976, 11.213332, 11.345111, 11.265079 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.01, "trend_reference": 11.145761, "distance_from_trend": -0.101901, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.778953, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140227, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.871544, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09, "excess_performance": -0.046796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101901, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044255, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140227, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206427, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058715, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110085, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.197012, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29070820, "relative_activity": 0.785475, "balance": 1.197012, "dry_up": 1.090737, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1636, "annualized_volatility": 0.642334, "from_high_reference": -0.323389, "from_low_reference": 0.128523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.145761, "fair_value_reference": 8.778953, "structural_low": 8.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.006951, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.009968, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.084813, "worst_return": -0.178999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.063613, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.042001, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.09136, "worst_return": -0.182263, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.209231, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.118954, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285752, "worst_return": -0.242655, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043257, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004866, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058473, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.17767, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108242, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", 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"energy": 34.033946, "activity_lines": [ 12.777764, 12.537753, 11.901438, 11.598861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.08, "volume": 46663098, "typical_volume": 36942611.75, "trend": 11.179761, "fair_value": 8.770111, "relative_strength": -11.933331, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.507593, "energy": 10.959596, "activity_lines": [ 11.393849, 12.002255, 11.672805, 11.461199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.28, "volume": 33803631, "typical_volume": 36677155.65, "trend": 11.150095, "fair_value": 8.772502, "relative_strength": -10.311656, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.900494, "energy": 30.746775, "activity_lines": [ 10.395333, 11.534446, 11.470125, 11.338634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.01, "volume": 29070820, "typical_volume": 37010498.15, "trend": 11.145761, "fair_value": 8.778953, "relative_strength": -5.871544, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.081536, "energy": 35.698932, "activity_lines": [ 9.976, 11.213332, 11.345111, 11.265079 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }