{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a0f4217-fdc6-4e9d-b2d4-2888e852ead2", "symbol": "HODLV", "name": "21Shares Crypto Basket Equal Weight (HODLV) ETP", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.469, "architecture_energy": 49.24, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 55.789, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.14, "rotation_up": 27.25, "upward_expansion": 19.92, "deceleration": 66.51, "rotation_down": 42.9, "downward_expansion": 67.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.372, 16.314363, 17.078667, 17.671049 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.416, "trend_reference": 18.845867, "distance_from_trend": -0.128934, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.125538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.18432, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.353586, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.100296, "excess_performance": -0.183179, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128934, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166503, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.18432, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199681, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.403536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09137, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100296, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8, "relative_activity": 2.051282, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.512821, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047871, "annualized_volatility": 0.34626, "from_high_reference": -0.595166, "from_low_reference": 0.052848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.845867, "fair_value_reference": 20.125538, "structural_low": 15.592, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.045357, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.034456, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.182684, "worst_return": -0.343669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.080879, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.049465, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.298515, "worst_return": -0.318921, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.769808, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.69674, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.967668, "worst_return": -0.406547, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 16.2884, 16.749345, 17.749743, 18.535002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.247999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.75, "trend": 19.853433, "fair_value": 19.966051, "relative_strength": -43.039912, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.705928, "energy": 65.002051, "activity_lines": [ 16.290399, 16.526381, 17.553952, 18.281056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.502001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.75, "trend": 19.544333, "fair_value": 20.019122, "relative_strength": -41.178446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.980247, "energy": 56.982818, "activity_lines": [ 16.374, 16.411782, 17.391228, 18.064834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.5, "trend": 19.225333, "fair_value": 20.071538, "relative_strength": -41.157222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.260681, "energy": 51.85271, "activity_lines": [ 16.3608, 16.319418, 17.218905, 17.852297 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.416, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 3.9, "trend": 18.845867, "fair_value": 20.125538, "relative_strength": -40.353586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.469475, "energy": 49.239847, "activity_lines": [ 16.372, 16.314363, 17.078667, 17.671049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }