{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a10fa3e-8c09-48ed-9b9d-0f6e6e7bd3a2", "symbol": "300479", "name": "Synthesis Electronic Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.576, "architecture_energy": 59.044, "architecture_maturity": 85.868, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 28.66, "upward_expansion": 11.06, "deceleration": 60.37, "rotation_down": 51.95, "downward_expansion": 84.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.361333, 13.424909, 14.398286, 15.614387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.96, "trend_reference": 17.243666, "distance_from_trend": -0.190427, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.468846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.244133, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.231504, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.291371, "excess_performance": -0.29877, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.190427, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097253, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.244133, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162531, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.272315, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028202, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.291371, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.479644, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28787075, "relative_activity": 1.520366, "balance": 0.479644, "dry_up": 1.225247, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079623, "annualized_volatility": 0.398788, "from_high_reference": -0.43687, "from_low_reference": 0.139592 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.243666, "fair_value_reference": 18.468846, "structural_low": 12.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.012217, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": 0.000332, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.294324, "worst_return": -0.178914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.04702, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.054722, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.455213, "worst_return": -0.20855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.134049, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.006116, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.690612, "worst_return": -0.20252, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.34, "volume": 21422575, "typical_volume": 18933342.4, "trend": 17.586, "fair_value": 18.547885, "relative_strength": -35.033424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.483023, "energy": 88.452434, "activity_lines": [ 12.876, 13.423455, 14.791667, 16.088043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.7, "volume": 23890447, "typical_volume": 18834819.15, "trend": 17.415667, "fair_value": 18.504872, "relative_strength": -25.827569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.934293, "energy": 65.235715, "activity_lines": [ 13.089333, 13.376909, 14.566667, 15.837333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.96, "volume": 28787075, "typical_volume": 18934308.35, "trend": 17.243666, "fair_value": 18.468846, "relative_strength": -27.231504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.576449, "energy": 59.043514, "activity_lines": [ 13.361333, 13.424909, 14.398286, 15.614387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }