{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a1386fa-8250-49ac-9b98-a0185fc53896", "symbol": "AEV", "name": "Avenira Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.834, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.251, "architecture_energy": 16.774, "architecture_maturity": 60.042, "architecture_confidence": 63.47, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.35, "rotation_up": 38.16, "upward_expansion": 21.68, "deceleration": 41.0, "rotation_down": 22.54, "downward_expansion": 55.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0072, 0.006927, 0.007081, 0.007226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0075, "trend_reference": 0.007333, "distance_from_trend": 0.022727, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.008667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.134615, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.766045, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.0625, "excess_performance": -0.126206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022727, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028698, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.134615, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008242, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03766, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07109, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.270894, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 561828, "relative_activity": 0.198909, "balance": 1.270894, "dry_up": 0.932872, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107692, "annualized_volatility": 0.892333, "from_high_reference": -0.166667, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.007333, "fair_value_reference": 0.008667, "structural_low": 0.006, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.010374, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.021689, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.06439, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.307692, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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0.008785, "relative_strength": -5.966067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.077794, "energy": 59.247893, "activity_lines": [ 0.0066, 0.006727, 0.007131, 0.007257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.006, "volume": 1348506, "typical_volume": 3135867.35, "trend": 0.0073, "fair_value": 0.008734, "relative_strength": -18.733765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.035282, "energy": 67.299213, "activity_lines": [ 0.0064, 0.006564, 0.007, 0.007169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.008, "volume": 3389380, "typical_volume": 3083820.55, "trend": 0.007317, "fair_value": 0.008702, "relative_strength": 5.964969, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.929995, "energy": 10.412179, "activity_lines": [ 0.006933, 0.0068, 0.007064, 0.007214 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0075, "volume": 561828, "typical_volume": 2824548.6, "trend": 0.007333, "fair_value": 0.008667, "relative_strength": -3.766045, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.251223, "energy": 16.773549, "activity_lines": [ 0.0072, 0.006927, 0.007081, 0.007226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }