{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a17c719-14a6-4ca7-b8e9-1d2a988f7d74", "symbol": "DEMZ", "name": "DEMOCRATIC LARGE CAP CORE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.323, "architecture_energy": 60.545, "architecture_maturity": 60.969, "architecture_confidence": 65.714, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.85, "rotation_up": 53.06, "upward_expansion": 80.76, "deceleration": 69.44, "rotation_down": 27.11, "downward_expansion": 9.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.307407, 47.064645, 46.210992, 45.221251 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 48.4913, "trend_reference": 44.223393, "distance_from_trend": 0.096508, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.374923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.333097, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.546738, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.134469, "excess_performance": -0.052984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096508, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034296, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.333097, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051672, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015467, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08316, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134469, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.720255, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13036, "relative_activity": 0.765943, "balance": 1.720255, "dry_up": 0.511441, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02405, "annualized_volatility": 0.153808, "from_high_reference": -0.001826, "from_low_reference": 0.242245 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.223393, "fair_value_reference": 36.374923, "structural_low": 39.0352, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.017859, "positive_rate": 0.709677, "directional_follow_through": 0.709677, "median_excess_return": -0.000541, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.07103, "worst_return": -0.059747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.040715, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.011672, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.145868, "worst_return": -0.03823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.09771, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016874, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.134469, "worst_return": 0.07534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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81.554977, "activity_lines": [ 46.605527, 46.057587, 44.775575, 44.128109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.6405, "volume": 11784, "typical_volume": 19426.3, "trend": 43.688922, "fair_value": 35.858171, "relative_strength": -3.852787, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.664219, "energy": 85.966931, "activity_lines": [ 47.033393, 46.442491, 45.149671, 44.394618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.7813, "volume": 3854, "typical_volume": 18025.1, "trend": 43.829212, "fair_value": 35.984737, "relative_strength": -1.42444, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.292226, "energy": 78.050401, "activity_lines": [ 47.007433, 46.603687, 45.418778, 44.594127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.2853, "volume": 8712, "typical_volume": 17331.85, "trend": 43.932513, "fair_value": 36.10587, "relative_strength": -0.828422, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.539038, "energy": 57.479202, "activity_lines": [ 46.793907, 46.632453, 45.62154, 44.752584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.7739, "volume": 9216, "typical_volume": 16788.0, "trend": 44.068347, "fair_value": 36.234141, "relative_strength": -0.263648, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.627683, "energy": 52.284763, "activity_lines": [ 46.7755, 46.706044, 45.848915, 44.935899 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.4913, "volume": 13036, "typical_volume": 17019.55, "trend": 44.223393, "fair_value": 36.374923, "relative_strength": -1.546738, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.323338, "energy": 60.545024, "activity_lines": [ 47.307407, 47.064645, 46.210992, 45.221251 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }