{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a1d4b32-82bc-4a7d-8513-018ed66d0f24", "symbol": "XMMD", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Emerging Markets Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.24, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.905, "architecture_energy": 19.267, "architecture_maturity": 64.813, "architecture_confidence": 83.867, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.2, "rotation_up": 16.29, "upward_expansion": 45.82, "deceleration": 87.93, "rotation_down": 43.0, "downward_expansion": 30.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.381332, 82.600454, 82.769332, 81.071558 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 82.644997, "trend_reference": 78.885499, "distance_from_trend": 0.047658, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.929968, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.426636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.073478, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.104584, "excess_performance": 0.053349, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047658, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070645, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.426636, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121454, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.040735, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153129, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104584, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.445625, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1616, "relative_activity": 0.327311, "balance": 1.445625, "dry_up": 0.988769, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039725, "annualized_volatility": 0.251643, "from_high_reference": -0.064996, "from_low_reference": 0.358846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.885499, "fair_value_reference": 57.929968, "structural_low": 68.160004, "invalidation": "A 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"orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001849, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028555, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00877, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02807, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028634, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.17063, "energy": 21.965857, "activity_lines": [ 81.194333, 82.80209, 82.582952, 80.804688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.644997, "volume": 1616, "typical_volume": 4937.2, "trend": 78.885499, "fair_value": 57.929968, "relative_strength": 4.073478, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.905025, "energy": 19.266704, "activity_lines": [ 81.381332, 82.600454, 82.769332, 81.071558 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }