{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a21d9da-2185-49a4-8ab0-4b79f261d06f", "symbol": "002569", "name": "Zhejiang Busen Garments Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.285, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.117, "architecture_energy": 47.261, "architecture_maturity": 10.68, "architecture_confidence": 60.406, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.54, "rotation_up": 19.66, "upward_expansion": 18.87, "deceleration": 42.89, "rotation_down": 66.96, "downward_expansion": 58.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.35, 14.103818, 14.665095, 14.670237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.05, "trend_reference": 14.638333, "distance_from_trend": -0.108505, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.15109, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.42606, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.218929, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101858, "excess_performance": -0.109258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108505, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092712, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.42606, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.385287, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002189, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09781, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101858, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.087037, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9278800, "relative_activity": 0.854974, "balance": 1.087037, "dry_up": 0.684877, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14135, "annualized_volatility": 0.481667, "from_high_reference": -0.279801, "from_low_reference": 0.467942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.638333, "fair_value_reference": 9.15109, "structural_low": 11.53, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.08547, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032922, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.095506, "worst_return": -0.077869, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.180052, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.06916, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.346995, "worst_return": 0.013109, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.258864, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.085427, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285519, "worst_return": 0.23221, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098831, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.177162, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053299, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018156, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035491, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063395, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.210108, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.159851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 5.61, "volume": 2021600, "typical_volume": 4491458.3, "trend": 5.861, "fair_value": 8.359295, "relative_strength": -8.817777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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14.945462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.52, "volume": 7766499, "typical_volume": 10877220.9, "trend": 14.357333, "fair_value": 8.948397, "relative_strength": 7.029046, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.643022, "energy": 13.68533, "activity_lines": [ 15.274, 15.594545, 15.253286, 14.964064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.56, "volume": 5429300, "typical_volume": 10885605.9, "trend": 14.444333, "fair_value": 9.001859, "relative_strength": 9.549805, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.137826, "energy": 15.429021, "activity_lines": [ 14.611333, 15.196545, 15.119952, 14.912624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.0, "volume": 5905356, "typical_volume": 10481273.7, "trend": 14.584333, "fair_value": 9.055705, "relative_strength": 12.190471, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.682998, "energy": 17.802066, "activity_lines": [ 14.287333, 14.906727, 15.030905, 14.883957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.84, "volume": 9117662, "typical_volume": 10388782.45, "trend": 14.618333, "fair_value": 9.102756, "relative_strength": 4.089053, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.841426, "energy": 34.807647, "activity_lines": [ 13.742, 14.456182, 14.833143, 14.771419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.05, "volume": 9278800, "typical_volume": 10852722.45, "trend": 14.638333, "fair_value": 9.15109, "relative_strength": 0.218929, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.117297, "energy": 47.261243, "activity_lines": [ 13.35, 14.103818, 14.665095, 14.670237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }