{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a22515d-1bc8-4c7a-853e-e3d14d163910", "symbol": "HSN", "name": "Hansen Technologies Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.455, "architecture_energy": 47.306, "architecture_maturity": 73.598, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.71, "rotation_up": 22.36, "upward_expansion": 6.62, "deceleration": 55.3, "rotation_down": 54.9, "downward_expansion": 79.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.242667, 4.268727, 4.439286, 4.557335 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.46, "trend_reference": 4.70702, "distance_from_trend": -0.052479, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.940759, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.097305, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.093301, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009823, "excess_performance": -0.053883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052479, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076874, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.097305, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170933, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079712, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009823, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.33202, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1643144, "relative_activity": 1.116859, "balance": 0.33202, "dry_up": 1.482882, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058123, "annualized_volatility": 0.386625, "from_high_reference": -0.307106, "from_low_reference": 0.14653 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.70702, "fair_value_reference": 4.940759, "structural_low": 3.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.010941, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.008494, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.274059, "worst_return": -0.111984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.011391, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.041919, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.234875, "worst_return": -0.211881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038255, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.07887, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.198693, "worst_return": -0.238808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4.142667, 4.278545, 4.489476, 4.609628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.23, "volume": 2141626, "typical_volume": 1572745.05, "trend": 4.733302, "fair_value": 4.944152, "relative_strength": -19.383009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.439464, "energy": 72.770107, "activity_lines": [ 4.152, 4.248, 4.451381, 4.574967 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.46, "volume": 1643144, "typical_volume": 1471219.4, "trend": 4.70702, "fair_value": 4.940759, "relative_strength": -17.093301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.454532, "energy": 47.305853, "activity_lines": [ 4.242667, 4.268727, 4.439286, 4.557335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }