{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a269f61-17f6-404c-b2dc-a704f089baa6", "symbol": "ZIN", "name": "Zinc Media Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 91.102, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.096, "architecture_energy": 40.529, "architecture_maturity": 63.524, "architecture_confidence": 63.525, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.32, "rotation_up": 35.38, "upward_expansion": 64.05, "deceleration": 70.94, "rotation_down": 26.91, "downward_expansion": 18.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.569, 0.573, 0.540214, 0.512505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.565, "trend_reference": 0.486167, "distance_from_trend": 0.162153, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.657308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.140433, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.692341, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.228261, "excess_performance": 0.177026, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.162153, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058034, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.140433, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.243711, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006923, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.282326, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.228261, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.971869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4144, "relative_activity": 0.044974, "balance": 10.971869, "dry_up": 0.100065, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071082, "annualized_volatility": 0.297787, "from_high_reference": -0.20979, "from_low_reference": 0.4125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.486167, "fair_value_reference": 0.657308, "structural_low": 0.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.031746, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.042823, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.408046, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057377, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.018489, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.281609, "worst_return": -0.259259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.12069, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.143378, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.254098, "worst_return": -0.04878, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048387, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138211, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.147826, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.05102, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056604, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008772, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.855, "volume": 3872, "typical_volume": 60106.5, "trend": 0.9135, "fair_value": 0.801699, "relative_strength": -2.392544, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.575, "volume": 23294, "typical_volume": 101273.1, "trend": 0.474667, "fair_value": 0.665481, "relative_strength": 2.444892, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.215731, "energy": 68.931274, "activity_lines": [ 0.580667, 0.558636, 0.507714, 0.488903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.575, "volume": 20763, "typical_volume": 100469.9, "trend": 0.476833, "fair_value": 0.663365, "relative_strength": 2.441058, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.039299, "energy": 62.606722, "activity_lines": [ 0.580333, 0.567, 0.51731, 0.495376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.575, "volume": 6597, "typical_volume": 98606.95, "trend": 0.479833, "fair_value": 0.661282, "relative_strength": 2.045564, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.700858, "energy": 58.22948, "activity_lines": [ 0.579333, 0.572636, 0.526286, 0.50171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.565, "volume": 5377, "typical_volume": 97172.05, "trend": 0.482833, "fair_value": 0.659295, "relative_strength": 0.017966, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.339243, "energy": 48.728951, "activity_lines": [ 0.574, 0.573727, 0.533619, 0.507204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.565, "volume": 4144, "typical_volume": 92142.5, "trend": 0.486167, "fair_value": 0.657308, "relative_strength": 0.692341, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.095909, "energy": 40.528575, "activity_lines": [ 0.569, 0.573, 0.540214, 0.512505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }