{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a329193-178a-41ab-bb71-5a0ee75e00e7", "symbol": "WDCN3", "name": "WDC NETWORKSON NM", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.255, "architecture_energy": 41.439, "architecture_maturity": 80.404, "architecture_confidence": 82.622, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.94, "rotation_up": 17.58, "upward_expansion": 6.75, "deceleration": 46.06, "rotation_down": 63.21, "downward_expansion": 80.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.338667, 2.373273, 2.414095, 2.448452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.31, "trend_reference": 2.511, "distance_from_trend": -0.080048, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.165796, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.270326, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.673001, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.13806, "excess_performance": -0.081011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080048, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055423, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.270326, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025409, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21673, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129131, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.13806, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.992454, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27000, "relative_activity": 0.392699, "balance": 0.992454, "dry_up": 1.690059, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059607, "annualized_volatility": 0.212249, "from_high_reference": -0.4, "from_low_reference": 0.040541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.511, "fair_value_reference": 3.165796, "structural_low": 2.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -7.9e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012491, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.235556, "worst_return": -0.270588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.057831, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.088713, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.432684, "worst_return": -0.335294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.175084, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.248962, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.530701, "worst_return": -0.24269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128655, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115681, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.182353, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.172762, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089855, 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"relative_strength": -26.47837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.45572, "energy": 52.830621, "activity_lines": [ 2.413333, 2.445091, 2.46119, 2.499462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.3, "volume": 90800, "typical_volume": 65375.0, "trend": 2.541667, "fair_value": 3.223714, "relative_strength": -25.862861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.390176, "energy": 69.985008, "activity_lines": [ 2.367333, 2.417636, 2.443667, 2.483097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.48, "volume": 218100, "typical_volume": 71960.0, "trend": 2.538333, "fair_value": 3.202539, "relative_strength": -19.123978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.461795, "energy": 49.615198, "activity_lines": [ 2.394667, 2.424909, 2.444762, 2.479118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.28, "volume": 128900, "typical_volume": 71660.0, "trend": 2.527, "fair_value": 3.182422, "relative_strength": -26.233043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.500188, "energy": 52.529783, "activity_lines": [ 2.356, 2.394727, 2.427333, 2.462452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.31, "volume": 27000, "typical_volume": 68755.0, "trend": 2.511, "fair_value": 3.165796, "relative_strength": -21.673001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.254717, "energy": 41.439322, "activity_lines": [ 2.338667, 2.373273, 2.414095, 2.448452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }