{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a3ba3af-1040-4caf-b75e-f76137f95925", "symbol": "TDW", "name": "Tidewater Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.342, "architecture_energy": 26.849, "architecture_maturity": 25.975, "architecture_confidence": 77.172, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.47, "rotation_up": 60.41, "upward_expansion": 39.57, "deceleration": 42.32, "rotation_down": 17.3, "downward_expansion": 16.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.338, 75.152909, 76.096667, 76.676151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 82.84, "trend_reference": 75.411667, "distance_from_trend": 0.098504, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 66.540577, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244955, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.276909, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.248531, "excess_performance": 0.122906, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098504, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093229, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244955, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007155, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.112769, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103544, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.248531, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.71741, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4724295, "relative_activity": 1.267888, "balance": 1.71741, "dry_up": 0.867475, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081718, "annualized_volatility": 0.449786, "from_high_reference": -0.110491, "from_low_reference": 0.775777 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.411667, "fair_value_reference": 66.540577, "structural_low": 62.71, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.030753, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.094511, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.356728, "worst_return": -0.1464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.320419, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.283953, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.87234, "worst_return": -0.071042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.284409, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.181369, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.085782, "worst_return": -0.004139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.362315, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.164831, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123623, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.161317, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 3795672.55, "trend": 73.772667, "fair_value": 66.345256, "relative_strength": 11.274006, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.684342, "energy": 9.287467, "activity_lines": [ 74.643333, 72.912727, 75.881524, 76.057204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.06, "volume": 2886921, "typical_volume": 3703060.2, "trend": 74.533667, "fair_value": 66.415256, "relative_strength": 4.701833, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.22483, "energy": 13.048053, "activity_lines": [ 75.452, 73.287091, 75.614571, 76.140258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.84, "volume": 4724295, "typical_volume": 3726114.8, "trend": 75.411667, "fair_value": 66.540577, "relative_strength": 11.276909, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.341749, "energy": 26.848738, "activity_lines": [ 78.338, 75.152909, 76.096667, 76.676151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }