{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a3dbfdc-b32d-4bc7-9e2c-136ab2b67d1f", "symbol": "EMDV", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.161, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.334, "architecture_energy": 85.916, "architecture_maturity": 8.748, "architecture_confidence": 68.024, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.98, "rotation_up": 80.23, "upward_expansion": 96.92, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.14, "downward_expansion": 21.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.113488, 13.932348, 13.786256, 13.698026 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.084, "trend_reference": 13.616346, "distance_from_trend": 0.034345, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.265188, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.148291, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.242667, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006144, "excess_performance": -0.036947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034345, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014634, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.148291, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020115, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042427, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006776, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006144, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.033349, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2720, "relative_activity": 1.374466, "balance": 1.033349, "dry_up": 0.699108, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014282, "annualized_volatility": 0.105366, "from_high_reference": -0.015793, "from_low_reference": 0.096902 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.616346, "fair_value_reference": 12.265188, "structural_low": 12.948, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.011866, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": -0.018737, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.067745, "worst_return": -0.092455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.005109, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.033433, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.084618, "worst_return": -0.068529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004596, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044802, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.061892, "worst_return": -0.117625, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": 67.29695, "energy": 30.962019, "activity_lines": [ 13.645715, 13.600993, 13.585935, 13.555686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.015092, "volume": 672, "typical_volume": 1876.6, "trend": 13.553754, "fair_value": 12.1881, "relative_strength": -4.63329, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.114344, "energy": 73.299294, "activity_lines": [ 13.796894, 13.681377, 13.633859, 13.587739 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.106, "volume": 586, "typical_volume": 1878.75, "trend": 13.581223, "fair_value": 12.212711, "relative_strength": -5.064277, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.419236, "energy": 85.185047, "activity_lines": [ 13.945236, 13.769652, 13.685988, 13.623368 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.256, "volume": 1556, "typical_volume": 1843.5, "trend": 13.601585, "fair_value": 12.239588, "relative_strength": -2.825731, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.080831, "energy": 91.760744, "activity_lines": [ 14.084523, 13.874, 13.747051, 13.666902 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 14.084, "volume": 2720, "typical_volume": 1978.95, "trend": 13.616346, "fair_value": 12.265188, "relative_strength": -4.242667, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.334112, "energy": 85.915967, "activity_lines": [ 14.113488, 13.932348, 13.786256, 13.698026 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }