{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a469895-abbb-40a3-916f-569cb5ecfcd1", "symbol": "EWJ", "name": "iShares MSCI Japan ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.043, "architecture_energy": 29.508, "architecture_maturity": 58.225, "architecture_confidence": 90.081, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.8, "rotation_up": 33.49, "upward_expansion": 58.37, "deceleration": 88.25, "rotation_down": 26.86, "downward_expansion": 19.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 1620.509334, 1621.839009, 1606.447138, 1587.899078 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1655.430054, "trend_reference": 1565.197107, "distance_from_trend": 0.05765, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1315.534042, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258371, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.820276, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.075653, "excess_performance": 0.13032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05765, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033857, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258371, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012933, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.068203, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087601, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075653, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.029755, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11127, "relative_activity": 0.097244, "balance": 1.029755, "dry_up": 0.194952, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023798, "annualized_volatility": 0.190663, "from_high_reference": -0.011093, "from_low_reference": 0.182151 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1565.197107, "fair_value_reference": 1315.534042, "structural_low": 1474.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.031187, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.00425, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.085389, "worst_return": -0.006365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.032085, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.029459, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109704, "worst_return": -0.091269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082443, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027804, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224713, "worst_return": -0.161641, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"activity_lines": [ 1620.509334, 1621.839009, 1606.447138, 1587.899078 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }