{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a4810e7-79c5-4b61-ae59-86751fcc5f5a", "symbol": "FLCO", "name": "FRANKLIN TEMPLETON ETF TR INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.725, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.522, "architecture_energy": 70.673, "architecture_maturity": 4.809, "architecture_confidence": 83.492, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.74, "rotation_up": 8.79, "upward_expansion": 15.89, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 74.79, "downward_expansion": 91.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.978149, 21.081301, 21.155628, 21.186476 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.0207, "trend_reference": 21.23546, "distance_from_trend": -0.010113, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.072708, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047228, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.748102, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016802, "excess_performance": -0.142427, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010113, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047228, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025248, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117481, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016711, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016802, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.699564, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 186595, "relative_activity": 0.581229, "balance": 0.699564, "dry_up": 1.379177, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008886, "annualized_volatility": 0.048626, "from_high_reference": -0.026221, "from_low_reference": 0.016831 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.23546, "fair_value_reference": 20.072708, "structural_low": 20.864477, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.005053, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.01316, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.05282, "worst_return": -0.051845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.005821, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.027275, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.092185, "worst_return": -0.089556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023225, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.032163, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.047969, "worst_return": -0.115863, "sufficient": 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"down", "direction": -44.821201, "energy": 17.076956, "activity_lines": [ 21.245907, 21.250927, 21.243778, 21.258954 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.103383, "volume": 208326, "typical_volume": 392233.6, "trend": 21.268829, "fair_value": 20.023576, "relative_strength": -8.735235, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.704082, "energy": 34.391469, "activity_lines": [ 21.186261, 21.22593, 21.230717, 21.24803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.899317, "volume": 1088374, "typical_volume": 435290.35, "trend": 21.255694, "fair_value": 20.038773, "relative_strength": -8.836186, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.994993, "energy": 62.898889, "activity_lines": [ 21.072611, 21.167086, 21.200242, 21.22419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.895136, "volume": 287764, "typical_volume": 327456.25, "trend": 21.244711, "fair_value": 20.054977, "relative_strength": -9.51782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.770481, "energy": 74.702783, "activity_lines": [ 20.986518, 21.110476, 21.171596, 21.200928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.0207, "volume": 186595, "typical_volume": 321035.45, "trend": 21.23546, "fair_value": 20.072708, "relative_strength": -11.748102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.52227, "energy": 70.673386, "activity_lines": [ 20.978149, 21.081301, 21.155628, 21.186476 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }