{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a4a8a60-4e43-4e2b-99a1-e128b15f6685", "symbol": "SEA", "name": "Seabridge Gold Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.129, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.454, "architecture_energy": 9.874, "architecture_maturity": 15.162, "architecture_confidence": 63.777, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.82, "rotation_up": 21.67, "upward_expansion": 11.48, "deceleration": 50.95, "rotation_down": 40.56, "downward_expansion": 68.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.508666, 38.385818, 38.856894, 39.116598 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 43.459999, "trend_reference": 39.734113, "distance_from_trend": 0.09377, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.668496, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.836196, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.54893, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.13314, "excess_performance": 0.012719, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09377, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020978, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.836196, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003325, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.075489, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091338, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.13314, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.057054, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 365700, "relative_activity": 0.704755, "balance": 1.057054, "dry_up": 0.630031, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11216, "annualized_volatility": 0.750894, "from_high_reference": -0.144249, "from_low_reference": 1.133092 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.734113, "fair_value_reference": 23.668496, "structural_low": 30.271282, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.041858, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": 0.019289, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.287241, "worst_return": -0.122552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.000598, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.026286, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.452817, "worst_return": -0.165687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.141243, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.116903, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.558286, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": 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"activity_lines": [ 36.676, 38.035633, 38.58698, 39.098498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.139999, "volume": 375700, "typical_volume": 650930.45, "trend": 39.62408, "fair_value": 23.48591, "relative_strength": -6.933155, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.375128, "energy": 51.478199, "activity_lines": [ 36.338666, 37.522426, 38.363462, 38.869119 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.459999, "volume": 365700, "typical_volume": 518903.4, "trend": 39.734113, "fair_value": 23.668496, "relative_strength": 7.54893, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.454287, "energy": 9.873614, "activity_lines": [ 38.508666, 38.385818, 38.856894, 39.116598 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }