{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a4f38f7-704e-44c9-8541-cea89524384f", "symbol": "SXLU", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Utilities Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.8, "architecture_energy": 13.525, "architecture_maturity": 15.892, "architecture_confidence": 60.211, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.5, "rotation_up": 29.38, "upward_expansion": 29.54, "deceleration": 53.88, "rotation_down": 41.81, "downward_expansion": 27.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.706416, 57.016568, 56.99272, 57.137503 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 55.201248, "trend_reference": 56.965042, "distance_from_trend": -0.030963, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.653766, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158382, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.728968, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.02343, "excess_performance": -0.027805, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030963, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015976, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158382, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06711, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08729, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068267, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02343, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.545266, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36558, "relative_activity": 1.244064, "balance": 0.545266, "dry_up": 0.772512, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027729, "annualized_volatility": 0.189364, "from_high_reference": -0.091524, "from_low_reference": 0.083121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.965042, "fair_value_reference": 47.653766, "structural_low": 53.900009, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.019376, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": 0.000533, "regime_survival": 0.263158, "best_return": 0.117666, "worst_return": -0.071604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.018112, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.012995, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.113773, "worst_return": -0.132646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02343, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.002457, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.175258, "worst_return": 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"up", "direction": 36.771144, "energy": 21.478892, "activity_lines": [ 57.211834, 56.785887, 57.157721, 56.994291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 57.2775, "volume": 22689, "typical_volume": 36225.75, "trend": 56.494292, "fair_value": 47.18742, "relative_strength": -2.327987, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.284461, "energy": 24.443026, "activity_lines": [ 57.377334, 56.87491, 57.134953, 57.053602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.880001, "volume": 18614, "typical_volume": 34657.7, "trend": 56.636542, "fair_value": 47.30129, "relative_strength": -2.161222, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.662252, "energy": 31.736575, "activity_lines": [ 57.649167, 57.108205, 57.17209, 57.143003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.7225, "volume": 18734, "typical_volume": 33862.15, "trend": 56.818708, "fair_value": 47.423926, "relative_strength": -1.913255, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.159451, "energy": 47.58156, "activity_lines": [ 58.0575, 57.470455, 57.297774, 57.277581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.346249, "volume": 16898, "typical_volume": 30768.25, "trend": 56.9, "fair_value": 47.541819, "relative_strength": -6.815017, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.553499, "energy": 15.525303, "activity_lines": [ 57.50825, 57.34325, 57.193959, 57.2471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.201248, "volume": 36558, "typical_volume": 29385.95, "trend": 56.965042, "fair_value": 47.653766, "relative_strength": -8.728968, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.800067, "energy": 13.525125, "activity_lines": [ 56.706416, 57.016568, 56.99272, 57.137503 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }