{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a50ac2f-f18e-4f81-ae4e-8ede3d3294b2", "symbol": "601599", "name": "Zhewen Pictures Group co.,ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.371, "architecture_energy": 51.672, "architecture_maturity": 90.456, "architecture_confidence": 64.264, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.39, "rotation_up": 27.66, "upward_expansion": 21.83, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 41.9, "downward_expansion": 69.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.968667, 2.954364, 3.119952, 3.336108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.02, "trend_reference": 3.630667, "distance_from_trend": -0.168197, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.609615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.163346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.507453, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.330377, "excess_performance": -0.287173, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168197, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071678, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.163346, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177058, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175075, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057793, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.330377, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.609805, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116644650, "relative_activity": 1.511913, "balance": 0.609805, "dry_up": 1.253112, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060876, "annualized_volatility": 0.309386, "from_high_reference": -0.464539, "from_low_reference": 0.090253 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.630667, "fair_value_reference": 3.609615, "structural_low": 2.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.016393, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.001926, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.252252, "worst_return": -0.126154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.072498, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.055864, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.288809, "worst_return": -0.208571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.051136, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.022208, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.168285, "worst_return": 0.02, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039773, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056757, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038363, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036415, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047368, "active": false }, 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2.88, "volume": 15010300, "typical_volume": 141171386.85, "trend": 3.779333, "fair_value": 3.634744, "relative_strength": -25.887433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.151342, "energy": 92.233619, "activity_lines": [ 2.944, 3.096727, 3.371, 3.584387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.93, "volume": 76809041, "typical_volume": 98479321.9, "trend": 3.751333, "fair_value": 3.628654, "relative_strength": -23.189597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.401113, "energy": 88.066825, "activity_lines": [ 2.92, 3.038727, 3.304667, 3.529591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.95, "volume": 98675121, "typical_volume": 88713763.15, "trend": 3.725, "fair_value": 3.623462, "relative_strength": -17.358441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.704398, "energy": 78.662428, "activity_lines": [ 2.919333, 2.998545, 3.248524, 3.477892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.84, "volume": 78973699, "typical_volume": 81373047.75, "trend": 3.69, "fair_value": 3.618269, "relative_strength": -20.903744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.473775, "energy": 68.291929, "activity_lines": [ 2.892667, 2.952364, 3.188429, 3.420796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.02, "volume": 92418892, "typical_volume": 77758642.35, "trend": 3.662667, "fair_value": 3.614038, "relative_strength": -15.770891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.035709, "energy": 61.346011, "activity_lines": [ 2.936667, 2.950727, 3.151619, 3.37757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.02, "volume": 116644650, "typical_volume": 77150385.15, "trend": 3.630667, "fair_value": 3.609615, "relative_strength": -17.507453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.37147, "energy": 51.671834, "activity_lines": [ 2.968667, 2.954364, 3.119952, 3.336108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }