{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a582213-0083-4af0-b9b5-11bcca00e42e", "symbol": "603869", "name": "ENC Digital Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.5, "architecture_energy": 51.822, "architecture_maturity": 34.383, "architecture_confidence": 88.654, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.81, "rotation_up": 20.28, "upward_expansion": 7.74, "deceleration": 57.82, "rotation_down": 61.65, "downward_expansion": 83.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.272415, 8.350734, 9.031633, 9.320292 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.78, "trend_reference": 9.661575, "distance_from_trend": -0.091246, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.820271, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.122723, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.458108, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.078699, "excess_performance": -0.035495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091246, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066695, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.122723, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22592, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084581, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17869, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078699, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.831186, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7893485, "relative_activity": 1.508217, "balance": 0.831186, "dry_up": 1.036329, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084136, "annualized_volatility": 0.350239, "from_high_reference": -0.233188, "from_low_reference": 0.250712 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.661575, "fair_value_reference": 7.820271, "structural_low": 7.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.02167, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021624, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.165796, "worst_return": -0.202299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.076923, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.001636, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.15236, "worst_return": -0.37027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.15009, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.119661, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.155378, "worst_return": -0.278586, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-03", "close": 8.551169, "volume": 1060700, "typical_volume": 4906820.4, "trend": 10.092112, "fair_value": 7.908951, "relative_strength": -12.595552, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.249387, "energy": 82.933693, "activity_lines": [ 8.622304, 9.292387, 9.727451, 9.862792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.421606, "volume": 4269445, "typical_volume": 4966620.85, "trend": 10.014498, "fair_value": 7.892105, "relative_strength": -12.956392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.337352, "energy": 82.766693, "activity_lines": [ 8.493949, 9.044436, 9.589922, 9.755017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.212312, "volume": 3826615, "typical_volume": 4979753.6, "trend": 9.928242, "fair_value": 7.872063, "relative_strength": -10.030069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.900095, "energy": 82.661753, "activity_lines": [ 8.383723, 8.79513, 9.439023, 9.638747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.7, "volume": 6236350, "typical_volume": 5058822.8, "trend": 9.825909, "fair_value": 7.851679, "relative_strength": -16.804609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.487745, "energy": 80.588494, "activity_lines": [ 8.131239, 8.498635, 9.248084, 9.49499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.06, "volume": 3738695, "typical_volume": 5011616.8, "trend": 9.721909, "fair_value": 7.831492, "relative_strength": -13.432002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.754209, "energy": 67.654833, "activity_lines": [ 8.075421, 8.331593, 9.101287, 9.38106 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.78, "volume": 7893485, "typical_volume": 5233652.05, "trend": 9.661575, "fair_value": 7.820271, "relative_strength": -8.458108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.49982, "energy": 51.822392, "activity_lines": [ 8.272415, 8.350734, 9.031633, 9.320292 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }