{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a5c9a04-694d-4892-83dd-db6b121f2e18", "symbol": "ANIC", "name": "Agronomics Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.9, "architecture_energy": 48.225, "architecture_maturity": 19.424, "architecture_confidence": 89.98, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.22, "rotation_up": 18.0, "upward_expansion": 6.94, "deceleration": 49.93, "rotation_down": 59.56, "downward_expansion": 80.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.053793, 0.054853, 0.058988, 0.060936 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.054, "trend_reference": 0.06213, "distance_from_trend": -0.130855, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.070014, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.22873, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.100668, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.142857, "excess_performance": -0.194092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064448, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.22873, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122116, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241007, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135246, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.718482, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5824033, "relative_activity": 0.742203, "balance": 0.718482, "dry_up": 1.184977, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103989, "annualized_volatility": 0.357377, "from_high_reference": -0.349398, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.06213, "fair_value_reference": 0.070014, "structural_low": 0.048, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.003731, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017215, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 1.12987, "worst_return": -0.247387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.06, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.096496, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.846154, "worst_return": -0.318182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.148677, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.183156, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.487603, "worst_return": -0.45, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.180556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122951, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056338, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148649, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.115447, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.358453, "energy": 81.831164, "activity_lines": [ 0.052833, 0.056225, 0.060476, 0.061901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0561, "volume": 9542311, "typical_volume": 8055670.55, "trend": 0.062397, "fair_value": 0.070325, "relative_strength": -21.61912, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.595524, "energy": 71.055838, "activity_lines": [ 0.0536, 0.055631, 0.059796, 0.061477 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.054, "volume": 5824033, "typical_volume": 7846954.75, "trend": 0.06213, "fair_value": 0.070014, "relative_strength": -24.100668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.899527, "energy": 48.224994, "activity_lines": [ 0.053793, 0.054853, 0.058988, 0.060936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }