{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a63eafa-031f-4190-b773-124be4a28523", "symbol": "ALPHAGEO", "name": "Alphageo (India) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.146, "architecture_energy": 31.258, "architecture_maturity": 15.473, "architecture_confidence": 63.441, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.23, "rotation_up": 56.99, "upward_expansion": 64.77, "deceleration": 60.9, "rotation_down": 16.51, "downward_expansion": 15.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 216.118, 209.643454, 210.862475, 209.3103 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 230.639999, "trend_reference": 208.332666, "distance_from_trend": 0.107076, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 290.863349, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.20705, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.737369, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028724, "excess_performance": 0.072433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107076, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035973, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.20705, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040286, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047374, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071982, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028724, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.703286, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 497122, "relative_activity": 7.050076, "balance": 4.703286, "dry_up": 2.150607, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07661, "annualized_volatility": 0.38531, "from_high_reference": -0.196376, "from_low_reference": 0.399515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 208.332666, "fair_value_reference": 290.863349, "structural_low": 164.800003, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.009371, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.017376, "regime_survival": 0.56, "best_return": 0.292345, "worst_return": -0.384391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.092511, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.120942, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.319403, "worst_return": -0.507769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.165954, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.181731, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.212012, "worst_return": -0.370102, 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"energy": 46.735382, "activity_lines": [ 200.320664, 205.504179, 208.377046, 208.170945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 197.490005, "volume": 21660, "typical_volume": 50013.25, "trend": 209.129999, "fair_value": 291.88927, "relative_strength": -10.097996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.970864, "energy": 53.862097, "activity_lines": [ 198.73, 203.216908, 207.533856, 207.375784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 204.649994, "volume": 19434, "typical_volume": 49871.25, "trend": 208.310999, "fair_value": 291.494761, "relative_strength": -4.242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.825497, "energy": 41.971436, "activity_lines": [ 200.229331, 202.666725, 207.385522, 207.086751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 220.130005, "volume": 68367, "typical_volume": 49281.25, "trend": 207.993999, "fair_value": 291.159938, "relative_strength": 0.616131, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.648995, "energy": 6.460975, "activity_lines": [ 207.132667, 205.196727, 208.702427, 207.849268 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 230.639999, "volume": 497122, "typical_volume": 70513.0, "trend": 208.332666, "fair_value": 290.863349, "relative_strength": 4.737369, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.146499, "energy": 31.25774, "activity_lines": [ 216.118, 209.643454, 210.862475, 209.3103 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }