{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a669fd9-ffd2-4e96-84b4-be11458a9011", "symbol": "002052", "name": "Shenzhen Coship Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.47, "architecture_energy": 29.423, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.353, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.28, "rotation_up": 29.85, "upward_expansion": 18.9, "deceleration": 44.01, "rotation_down": 34.65, "downward_expansion": 66.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.847333, 8.601091, 9.131524, 9.674774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.75, "trend_reference": 10.473333, "distance_from_trend": -0.069064, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.652821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.465544, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.423714, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.175127, "excess_performance": -0.182527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069064, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122101, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.465544, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.445327, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008675, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.175127, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.418722, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75566284, "relative_activity": 1.109946, "balance": 0.418722, "dry_up": 1.172994, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098935, "annualized_volatility": 0.463011, "from_high_reference": -0.535714, "from_low_reference": 0.308725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.473333, "fair_value_reference": 6.652821, "structural_low": 7.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.032121, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.037304, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.692857, "worst_return": -0.201826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.015832, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.108635, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.571429, "worst_return": -0.158031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.102857, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.170571, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 6.011905, "worst_return": -0.175127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"orange", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008439, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.949495, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132969, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 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9.136182, 9.849571, 10.405634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.08, "volume": 72306835, "typical_volume": 66982197.15, "trend": 10.967667, "fair_value": 6.478654, "relative_strength": -41.635378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.660214, "energy": 84.199861, "activity_lines": [ 8.224667, 8.840364, 9.62381, 10.209634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.92, "volume": 103943935, "typical_volume": 68389837.85, "trend": 10.817667, "fair_value": 6.517244, "relative_strength": -36.514426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.323994, "energy": 76.860101, "activity_lines": [ 8.075333, 8.552, 9.399238, 10.013011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.32, "volume": 79959224, "typical_volume": 69040703.15, "trend": 10.691667, "fair_value": 6.558333, "relative_strength": -33.044213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.334248, "energy": 55.622281, "activity_lines": [ 8.138, 8.402909, 9.234381, 9.851871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.77, "volume": 59965300, "typical_volume": 68174512.15, "trend": 10.573333, "fair_value": 6.602308, "relative_strength": -27.809129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.868901, "energy": 48.608501, "activity_lines": [ 8.359333, 8.394364, 9.129, 9.727892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.75, "volume": 75566284, "typical_volume": 68081045.8, "trend": 10.473333, "fair_value": 6.652821, "relative_strength": -23.423714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.469906, "energy": 29.422778, "activity_lines": [ 8.847333, 8.601091, 9.131524, 9.674774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }