{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a6d582b-660a-4d3e-a7d9-e4ad20e39aff", "symbol": "8210", "name": "Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.898, "architecture_energy": 36.051, "architecture_maturity": 7.158, "architecture_confidence": 44.241, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.08, "rotation_up": 22.72, "upward_expansion": 17.42, "deceleration": 43.69, "rotation_down": 54.83, "downward_expansion": 54.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 165.119998, 167.868066, 170.978209, 171.845304 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 173.0, "trend_reference": 170.531142, "distance_from_trend": 0.014477, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 187.106966, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.075395, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.177447, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.067901, "excess_performance": 0.099731, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014477, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05057, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.075395, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016009, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.081774, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006999, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067901, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.595829, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 731562, "relative_activity": 1.214233, "balance": 0.595829, "dry_up": 0.930293, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067469, "annualized_volatility": 0.29488, "from_high_reference": -0.114754, "from_low_reference": 0.316591 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 170.531142, "fair_value_reference": 187.106966, "structural_low": 156.899994, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.087256, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033646, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.025487, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.224888, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.065339, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224888, "worst_return": 0.224888, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.266867, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.185913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.266867, "worst_return": 0.266867, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.420994, "energy": 49.100064, "activity_lines": [ 180.397702, 177.421004, 176.460483, 172.209995 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 176.46965, "volume": 489046, "typical_volume": 661171.15, "trend": 165.971143, "fair_value": 187.502632, "relative_strength": 9.502498, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.654789, "energy": 44.772752, "activity_lines": [ 180.365134, 177.28522, 176.618713, 172.950694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 168.899994, "volume": 440829, "typical_volume": 654757.0, "trend": 166.801142, "fair_value": 187.473499, "relative_strength": 5.841112, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.882861, "energy": 23.711882, "activity_lines": [ 177.229583, 175.855504, 175.987121, 173.139652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 162.899994, "volume": 500364, "typical_volume": 637092.0, "trend": 167.094475, "fair_value": 187.395016, "relative_strength": 2.33266, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.302271, "energy": 7.159063, "activity_lines": [ 172.018912, 173.609426, 174.760767, 172.887965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 158.899994, "volume": 442263, "typical_volume": 601749.65, "trend": 167.717808, "fair_value": 187.284723, "relative_strength": 0.681885, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.370016, "energy": 33.589314, "activity_lines": [ 166.158068, 170.91655, 173.211079, 172.359289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 167.699997, "volume": 639641, "typical_volume": 592359.1, "trend": 168.707808, "fair_value": 187.193828, "relative_strength": 5.451619, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.370247, "energy": 29.610883, "activity_lines": [ 165.137972, 170.134241, 172.589487, 172.35814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 157.0, "volume": 428499, "typical_volume": 582086.05, "trend": 169.241142, "fair_value": 187.065187, "relative_strength": 0.781937, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.576336, "energy": 58.337995, "activity_lines": [ 161.81333, 167.44867, 170.987896, 171.602797 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 173.0, "volume": 731562, "typical_volume": 602488.8, "trend": 170.531142, "fair_value": 187.106966, "relative_strength": 8.177447, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.897534, "energy": 36.051466, "activity_lines": [ 165.119998, 167.868066, 170.978209, 171.845304 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }