{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a7481b8-4270-4855-b39a-798e7da93572", "symbol": "300258", "name": "Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.305, "architecture_energy": 69.042, "architecture_maturity": 51.379, "architecture_confidence": 88.086, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 11.22, "upward_expansion": 15.37, "deceleration": 38.13, "rotation_down": 69.5, "downward_expansion": 88.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.915333, 10.453169, 11.32878, 11.880348 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.23, "trend_reference": 12.664526, "distance_from_trend": -0.192232, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.696184, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.125356, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.792249, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.218487, "excess_performance": -0.225887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192232, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059755, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.125356, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329888, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257922, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07512, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218487, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.68108, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41357984, "relative_activity": 0.53108, "balance": 0.68108, "dry_up": 0.529708, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146918, "annualized_volatility": 0.737819, "from_high_reference": -0.429328, "from_low_reference": 0.126652 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.664526, "fair_value_reference": 11.696184, "structural_low": 9.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.013999, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.019743, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.530851, "worst_return": -0.179417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.048254, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.384842, "worst_return": -0.215194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.101967, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.003892, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.36339, "worst_return": -0.187166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.73761, "energy": 67.733151, "activity_lines": [ 10.839333, 11.492303, 12.009244, 12.49731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.12, "volume": 44466302, "typical_volume": 84488551.15, "trend": 12.933859, "fair_value": 11.731454, "relative_strength": -32.675342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.993201, "energy": 72.196185, "activity_lines": [ 10.159333, 10.953712, 11.696407, 12.243233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.88, "volume": 38634323, "typical_volume": 79859188.65, "trend": 12.800859, "fair_value": 11.710331, "relative_strength": -25.243894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.407894, "energy": 69.761211, "activity_lines": [ 9.957333, 10.634796, 11.48557, 12.046209 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.23, "volume": 41357984, "typical_volume": 77875176.3, "trend": 12.664526, "fair_value": 11.696184, "relative_strength": -25.792249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.304912, "energy": 69.042404, "activity_lines": [ 9.915333, 10.453169, 11.32878, 11.880348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }