{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a749eb5-7654-4f9a-8f26-b27031d1ae14", "symbol": "000514", "name": "Chongqing Yukaifa Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.156, "architecture_energy": 52.597, "architecture_maturity": 97.068, "architecture_confidence": 94.425, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 25.71, "upward_expansion": 8.72, "deceleration": 59.67, "rotation_down": 52.92, "downward_expansion": 82.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.766, 3.791329, 4.070666, 4.280394 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.86, "trend_reference": 4.550044, "distance_from_trend": -0.151657, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.426572, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.127993, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.869978, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.240157, "excess_performance": -0.247557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151657, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099033, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.127993, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280088, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.2487, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042087, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.240157, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.326561, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51455800, "relative_activity": 1.19925, "balance": 0.326561, "dry_up": 1.22311, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083368, "annualized_volatility": 0.266117, "from_high_reference": -0.444604, "from_low_reference": 0.090395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.550044, "fair_value_reference": 4.426572, "structural_low": 3.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.000305, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02157, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.463023, "worst_return": -0.166271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.027692, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.012852, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.340102, "worst_return": -0.239407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.136976, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.085502, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.390428, "worst_return": -0.284861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009828, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133501, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053719, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058065, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.207627, "active": false 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4.428872, "relative_strength": -29.232583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.584239, "energy": 69.383724, "activity_lines": [ 3.689333, 3.836701, 4.172631, 4.379152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.82, "volume": 48653421, "typical_volume": 44342903.35, "trend": 4.585378, "fair_value": 4.428711, "relative_strength": -22.626241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.953728, "energy": 57.691486, "activity_lines": [ 3.726, 3.804308, 4.117101, 4.327192 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.86, "volume": 51455800, "typical_volume": 42906646.85, "trend": 4.550044, "fair_value": 4.426572, "relative_strength": -24.869978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.155559, "energy": 52.596837, "activity_lines": [ 3.766, 3.791329, 4.070666, 4.280394 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }