{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a78b2ff-98bf-4427-9c4d-67df4359e5fd", "symbol": "IME", "name": "ImExHS Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.361, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.036, "architecture_energy": 39.865, "architecture_maturity": 61.463, "architecture_confidence": 73.128, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.03, "rotation_up": 25.61, "upward_expansion": 10.24, "deceleration": 60.74, "rotation_down": 46.97, "downward_expansion": 74.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.321333, 0.323364, 0.341167, 0.357366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.32, "trend_reference": 0.378667, "distance_from_trend": -0.15493, "trend_direction": "Stable", "fair_value": 0.430048, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.255897, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.392569, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.288889, "excess_performance": -0.352595, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15493, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.255897, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103926, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315861, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.838823, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17687, "relative_activity": 0.445917, "balance": 2.838823, "dry_up": 1.207509, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106971, "annualized_volatility": 0.585157, "from_high_reference": -0.319149, "from_low_reference": 0.454545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.378667, "fair_value_reference": 0.430048, "structural_low": 0.275, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.317073, "directional_follow_through": 0.634146, "median_excess_return": -0.060458, "regime_survival": 0.902439, "best_return": 0.390244, "worst_return": -0.352519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.153344, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.174983, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.261905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.194903, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.247577, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.481481, "worst_return": -0.37931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.217391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"volume": 1712, "typical_volume": 47557.55, "trend": 0.385833, "fair_value": 0.437196, "relative_strength": -15.164083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.053989, "energy": 87.842773, "activity_lines": [ 0.320333, 0.336818, 0.358881, 0.373516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.31, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 44745.95, "trend": 0.385167, "fair_value": 0.435337, "relative_strength": -7.908959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.282038, "energy": 81.095696, "activity_lines": [ 0.312333, 0.329545, 0.352595, 0.368624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.305, "volume": 2062, "typical_volume": 42181.15, "trend": 0.383, "fair_value": 0.433446, "relative_strength": -9.385731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.053357, "energy": 63.755398, "activity_lines": [ 0.307667, 0.323, 0.3465, 0.363452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.35, "volume": 171826, "typical_volume": 50772.45, "trend": 0.381333, "fair_value": 0.431843, "relative_strength": 1.393412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.122249, "energy": 49.367614, "activity_lines": [ 0.321, 0.325818, 0.345143, 0.361323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.32, "volume": 17687, "typical_volume": 39664.3, "trend": 0.378667, "fair_value": 0.430048, "relative_strength": -10.392569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.035806, "energy": 39.86529, "activity_lines": [ 0.321333, 0.323364, 0.341167, 0.357366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }