{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a7b2710-39ba-44c6-81f4-e549366c40fc", "symbol": "IXN", "name": "ISHARES TRUST GLOBAL TECH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.397, "architecture_energy": 26.049, "architecture_maturity": 69.662, "architecture_confidence": 94.066, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.59, "rotation_up": 30.9, "upward_expansion": 58.27, "deceleration": 88.11, "rotation_down": 27.2, "downward_expansion": 19.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 135.990667, 136.862239, 134.967543, 128.890843 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 140.87, "trend_reference": 121.288959, "distance_from_trend": 0.161441, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 88.357965, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.59431, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.529841, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.326113, "excess_performance": 0.200488, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.161441, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100302, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.59431, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028381, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.115298, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055708, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.326113, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.497316, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2488322, "relative_activity": 1.272696, "balance": 1.497316, "dry_up": 1.069584, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067082, "annualized_volatility": 0.294168, "from_high_reference": -0.058719, "from_low_reference": 0.525745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 121.288959, "fair_value_reference": 88.357965, "structural_low": 95.000649, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.031765, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.01296, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.092262, "worst_return": -0.012625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.107827, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.00599, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.113624, "worst_return": -0.020524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.198737, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.04896, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281684, "worst_return": -0.028786, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"direction": 63.517557, "energy": 53.457725, "activity_lines": [ 139.75529, 139.184248, 131.255112, 124.771749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 132.62, "volume": 2439334, "typical_volume": 1916405.1, "trend": 118.384373, "fair_value": 86.903667, "relative_strength": 10.338917, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.598863, "energy": 36.252578, "activity_lines": [ 137.21, 138.206101, 132.176891, 125.751316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 132.94, "volume": 1638974, "typical_volume": 1877864.75, "trend": 119.273117, "fair_value": 87.357585, "relative_strength": 10.863979, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.614118, "energy": 28.603105, "activity_lines": [ 135.234667, 137.290446, 133.005419, 126.690389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 132.68, "volume": 1798197, "typical_volume": 1920449.9, "trend": 120.169843, "fair_value": 87.826873, "relative_strength": 9.108346, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.831059, "energy": 22.45141, "activity_lines": [ 134.065333, 136.30912, 133.667906, 127.555349 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 140.87, "volume": 2488322, "typical_volume": 1955158.35, "trend": 121.288959, "fair_value": 88.357965, "relative_strength": 11.529841, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.397063, "energy": 26.048579, "activity_lines": [ 135.990667, 136.862239, 134.967543, 128.890843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }