{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a8b177b-622a-4b63-9059-2ed4ea4fc7bf", "symbol": "AGRO3", "name": "BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agr\u00edcolas", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.764, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.647, "architecture_energy": 30.359, "architecture_maturity": 70.384, "architecture_confidence": 74.005, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.99, "rotation_up": 26.84, "upward_expansion": 19.58, "deceleration": 46.36, "rotation_down": 31.67, "downward_expansion": 55.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.757333, 18.724727, 18.827095, 19.237054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.07, "trend_reference": 19.767667, "distance_from_trend": -0.085881, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.246654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149513, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.337325, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.104559, "excess_performance": -0.047511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085881, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018926, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149513, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042847, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123373, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075009, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104559, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.577661, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 525100, "relative_activity": 0.773355, "balance": 0.577661, "dry_up": 0.718825, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0338, "annualized_volatility": 0.194653, "from_high_reference": -0.205714, "from_low_reference": 0.006125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.767667, "fair_value_reference": 21.246654, "structural_low": 17.959999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.0005, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020677, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.204669, "worst_return": -0.060754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.030061, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.023821, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.42274, "worst_return": -0.077149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041531, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.011403, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.390984, "worst_return": -0.14717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-63.499723, "energy": 74.712171, "activity_lines": [ 18.386667, 18.535818, 19.124095, 19.554129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.01, "volume": 402400, "typical_volume": 802485.0, "trend": 19.904667, "fair_value": 21.290982, "relative_strength": -12.726107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.982189, "energy": 56.373479, "activity_lines": [ 18.567333, 18.604364, 19.054143, 19.493312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.42, "volume": 472600, "typical_volume": 774475.0, "trend": 19.898, "fair_value": 21.284677, "relative_strength": -8.192208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.834769, "energy": 31.321038, "activity_lines": [ 18.863333, 18.74, 19.032429, 19.462043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.0, "volume": 561700, "typical_volume": 760955.0, "trend": 19.862333, "fair_value": 21.272836, "relative_strength": -9.814988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.47665, "energy": 23.991745, "activity_lines": [ 18.978667, 18.792727, 18.980048, 19.404108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.04, "volume": 392900, "typical_volume": 724625.0, "trend": 19.837, "fair_value": 21.258666, "relative_strength": -11.041722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.356226, "energy": 25.986875, "activity_lines": [ 19.058667, 18.85, 18.942, 19.351054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.07, "volume": 525100, "typical_volume": 678990.0, "trend": 19.767667, "fair_value": 21.246654, "relative_strength": -12.337325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.647395, "energy": 30.358629, "activity_lines": [ 18.757333, 18.724727, 18.827095, 19.237054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }