{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a923cab-319c-42dc-acc3-7f5d68ba0c98", "symbol": "UC90", "name": "UBS CMCI Composite SF UCITS ETF hGBP acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.821, "architecture_energy": 70.322, "architecture_maturity": 7.412, "architecture_confidence": 77.197, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.17, "rotation_up": 74.32, "upward_expansion": 87.52, "deceleration": 46.18, "rotation_down": 11.59, "downward_expansion": 16.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 18008.666667, 17701.654545, 17665.616667, 17453.026882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18152.0, "trend_reference": 17001.816667, "distance_from_trend": 0.067651, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14278.43589, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.271288, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.58736, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.179467, "excess_performance": 0.128232, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067651, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061899, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.271288, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028197, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.055874, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079954, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.179467, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.664756, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108, "relative_activity": 0.630473, "balance": 2.664756, "dry_up": 0.948628, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026213, "annualized_volatility": 0.123633, "from_high_reference": -0.038088, "from_low_reference": 0.309196 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17001.816667, "fair_value_reference": 14278.43589, "structural_low": 15125.099609, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.012705, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.007099, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.107533, "worst_return": -0.118572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000507, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032315, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.23196, "worst_return": -0.145506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.035373, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.017936, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.188682, "worst_return": -0.036674, "sufficient": true 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17372.075268 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18152.0, "volume": 108, "typical_volume": 171.3, "trend": 17001.816667, "fair_value": 14278.43589, "relative_strength": 5.58736, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.821331, "energy": 70.321549, "activity_lines": [ 18008.666667, 17701.654545, 17665.616667, 17453.026882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }