{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0a9284b1-4032-4e0b-92c4-d608d603b757", "symbol": "CLIME-B", "name": "Climeon AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.162, "architecture_energy": 26.501, "architecture_maturity": 19.941, "architecture_confidence": 63.075, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.04, "rotation_up": 17.64, "upward_expansion": 17.89, "deceleration": 55.57, "rotation_down": 57.35, "downward_expansion": 47.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.487333, 2.592727, 2.702952, 2.657386 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.44, "trend_reference": 2.63575, "distance_from_trend": -0.074267, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.514673, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.625461, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.422153, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037475, "excess_performance": -0.09897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074267, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048093, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.625461, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040007, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284222, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02847, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037475, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.670525, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112317, "relative_activity": 0.515595, "balance": 0.670525, "dry_up": 0.469393, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.212484, "annualized_volatility": 0.980212, "from_high_reference": -0.457778, "from_low_reference": 0.257732 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.63575, "fair_value_reference": 6.514673, "structural_low": 1.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.065018, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.079303, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.201613, "worst_return": -0.291045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.1819, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.233593, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.169355, "worst_return": -0.657936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.281287, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.295224, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.079519, "worst_return": -0.678602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.574883, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.528417, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.248274, "worst_return": -0.71875, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-03-03", "end": "2023-05-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.23925, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-05-12", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008432, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.335628, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020679, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.288044, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028916, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.263235, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.587156, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014958, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 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2.667333, 2.795455, 2.763574, 2.702508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.49, "volume": 94114, "typical_volume": 215603.4, "trend": 2.694917, "fair_value": 6.876929, "relative_strength": -26.573965, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.751536, "energy": 18.303897, "activity_lines": [ 2.603333, 2.726727, 2.746726, 2.68816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.44, "volume": 69319, "typical_volume": 214153.1, "trend": 2.662083, "fair_value": 6.688712, "relative_strength": -28.058095, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.035427, "energy": 19.291851, "activity_lines": [ 2.536667, 2.655273, 2.724745, 2.671714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.44, "volume": 112317, "typical_volume": 217839.4, "trend": 2.63575, "fair_value": 6.514673, "relative_strength": -28.422153, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.162488, "energy": 26.501387, "activity_lines": [ 2.487333, 2.592727, 2.702952, 2.657386 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }