{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0aa0bd78-10dc-4f3d-af71-e8c06f87bf02", "symbol": "GOB", "name": "Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 57.403, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.164, "architecture_energy": 41.093, "architecture_maturity": 14.303, "architecture_confidence": 50.643, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.41, "rotation_up": 53.52, "upward_expansion": 51.26, "deceleration": 32.55, "rotation_down": 31.44, "downward_expansion": 21.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.923999, 78.955635, 77.438346, 76.723181 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 85.059998, "trend_reference": 77.062187, "distance_from_trend": 0.103784, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 76.577915, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.110764, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.742215, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.002493, "excess_performance": -0.067133, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103784, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016611, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.110764, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080996, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027422, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084928, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002493, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.456017, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12235, "relative_activity": 1.065641, "balance": 1.456017, "dry_up": 0.699678, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048141, "annualized_volatility": 0.365081, "from_high_reference": -0.129917, "from_low_reference": 0.323383 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.062187, "fair_value_reference": 76.577915, "structural_low": 64.274672, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.009956, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00307, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.144402, "worst_return": -0.199019, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.1285, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.024216, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.205529, "worst_return": -0.172275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.250141, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.047061, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.402816, "worst_return": -0.06632, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.505239, "energy": 20.235097, "activity_lines": [ 75.927999, 76.655808, 75.804233, 75.921177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.4, "volume": 6519, "typical_volume": 12005.45, "trend": 76.961891, "fair_value": 76.393893, "relative_strength": -4.798062, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.046061, "energy": 12.985656, "activity_lines": [ 77.356, 77.550347, 76.474748, 76.200722 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.059998, "volume": 12235, "typical_volume": 11481.35, "trend": 77.062187, "fair_value": 76.577915, "relative_strength": -2.742215, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.164488, "energy": 41.093099, "activity_lines": [ 79.923999, 78.955635, 77.438346, 76.723181 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }