{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0aa309d7-6dcd-4f91-a783-79457cddde2f", "symbol": "BSX", "name": "Belo Sun Mining Corp", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.965, "architecture_energy": 19.981, "architecture_maturity": 16.041, "architecture_confidence": 55.124, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.35, "rotation_up": 27.47, "upward_expansion": 18.22, "deceleration": 62.57, "rotation_down": 40.93, "downward_expansion": 38.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.024667, 1.022545, 1.105143, 1.134409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.17, "trend_reference": 1.097, "distance_from_trend": 0.066545, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.33359, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.507302, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 34.271033, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.983051, "excess_performance": 0.86263, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066545, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194122, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.507302, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.840121, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.34271, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.75642, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.983051, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.90967, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1933500, "relative_activity": 0.745715, "balance": 0.90967, "dry_up": 1.090986, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134122, "annualized_volatility": 1.17158, "from_high_reference": -0.286585, "from_low_reference": 4.086957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.097, "fair_value_reference": 0.33359, "structural_low": 0.56, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.204545, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.2039, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.204545, "worst_return": -0.204545, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.181818, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.130325, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.181818, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.386364, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.324192, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.386364, "worst_return": -0.386364, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.818182, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.812137, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.818182, "worst_return": -0.818182, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.35, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 3.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.309524, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.271739, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.06, "volume": 337700, "typical_volume": 667840.0, "trend": 0.069667, "fair_value": 0.512308, "relative_strength": -52.750733, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.96633, "energy": 50.531645, 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"close": 0.87, "volume": 3170200, "typical_volume": 3230380.0, "trend": 1.057, "fair_value": 0.315192, "relative_strength": 7.855686, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.728778, "energy": 46.747115, "activity_lines": [ 0.996667, 1.046364, 1.156048, 1.142538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.92, "volume": 2941300, "typical_volume": 3075775.0, "trend": 1.067667, "fair_value": 0.320641, "relative_strength": 12.221764, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.921791, "energy": 44.717176, "activity_lines": [ 0.964667, 1.012545, 1.127619, 1.133699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.99, "volume": 3269900, "typical_volume": 2946820.0, "trend": 1.081333, "fair_value": 0.326538, "relative_strength": 19.491703, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.680612, "energy": 44.092955, "activity_lines": [ 0.964667, 0.998727, 1.107095, 1.128688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.17, "volume": 1933500, "typical_volume": 2592815.0, "trend": 1.097, "fair_value": 0.33359, "relative_strength": 34.271033, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.964718, "energy": 19.98056, "activity_lines": [ 1.024667, 1.022545, 1.105143, 1.134409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }