{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0aaafd6b-3fef-4535-8e78-633622f50091", "symbol": "002494", "name": "Huasi Holding Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.162, "architecture_energy": 51.625, "architecture_maturity": 22.348, "architecture_confidence": 90.85, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.39, "rotation_up": 18.13, "upward_expansion": 7.78, "deceleration": 49.21, "rotation_down": 60.98, "downward_expansion": 81.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.461333, 4.535636, 4.911714, 5.093032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.63, "trend_reference": 5.301667, "distance_from_trend": -0.12669, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.596859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.007209, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.006392, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.183422, "excess_performance": -0.190821, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12669, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047205, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.007209, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.382092, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150064, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131414, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183422, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.294812, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56235401, "relative_activity": 1.039566, "balance": 0.294812, "dry_up": 1.225431, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095697, "annualized_volatility": 0.400864, "from_high_reference": -0.27543, "from_low_reference": 0.163317 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.301667, "fair_value_reference": 4.596859, "structural_low": 3.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.049609, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.037763, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.239726, "worst_return": -0.208738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.081827, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.043116, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.370748, "worst_return": -0.209677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.291196, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.074994, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.418367, "worst_return": -0.185596, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.434524, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.024931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060209, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009926, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.198413, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-29", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 4.44, "volume": 56137624, "typical_volume": 52289415.45, "trend": 5.396333, "fair_value": 4.604167, "relative_strength": -16.783492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.845139, "energy": 77.276896, "activity_lines": [ 4.566, 4.790182, 5.144286, 5.27572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.2, "volume": 86327328, "typical_volume": 53699481.45, "trend": 5.358333, "fair_value": 4.600705, "relative_strength": -21.032029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.373824, "energy": 72.664545, "activity_lines": [ 4.435333, 4.633818, 5.039143, 5.198538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.42, "volume": 66458804, "typical_volume": 54484351.35, "trend": 5.327, "fair_value": 4.598397, "relative_strength": -15.112824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.995489, "energy": 66.928781, "activity_lines": [ 4.411333, 4.552182, 4.96219, 5.138 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.63, "volume": 56235401, "typical_volume": 54095091.4, "trend": 5.301667, "fair_value": 4.596859, "relative_strength": -15.006392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.161536, "energy": 51.624651, "activity_lines": [ 4.461333, 4.535636, 4.911714, 5.093032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }