{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0aaf195b-1e05-4380-8409-db2621c79364", "symbol": "XSPC", "name": "iShares S&P 500 3% Capped Index ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.715, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.272, "architecture_energy": 58.807, "architecture_maturity": 72.233, "architecture_confidence": 61.744, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.91, "rotation_up": 50.36, "upward_expansion": 80.52, "deceleration": 70.26, "rotation_down": 28.7, "downward_expansion": 9.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.858001, 52.688111, 52.157444, 51.278236 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 53.93, "trend_reference": 50.329888, "distance_from_trend": 0.07153, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.361916, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188883, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.285202, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.092364, "excess_performance": -0.028057, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07153, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030135, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188883, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032643, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022852, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006737, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092364, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.214286, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16500, "relative_activity": 1.684533, "balance": 1.214286, "dry_up": 1.033691, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016789, "annualized_volatility": 0.122754, "from_high_reference": -0.002036, "from_low_reference": 0.199081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.329888, "fair_value_reference": 45.361916, "structural_low": 45.209999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001272, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013191, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.082992, "worst_return": -0.057688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.029041, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.002104, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.03739, "worst_return": 0.020692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.061391, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005711, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.061391, "worst_return": 0.061391, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.145445, "energy": 83.018386, "activity_lines": [ 52.728991, 52.45196, 51.345094, 50.596825 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.16, "volume": 15900, "typical_volume": 15690.0, "trend": 49.938048, "fair_value": 45.149685, "relative_strength": -3.084407, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.742503, "energy": 68.514926, "activity_lines": [ 52.589151, 52.444856, 51.529348, 50.748418 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.040001, "volume": 4500, "typical_volume": 14030.0, "trend": 50.042555, "fair_value": 45.214688, "relative_strength": -3.371801, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.039853, "energy": 53.792303, "activity_lines": [ 52.409334, 52.40095, 51.687792, 50.884027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.400002, "volume": 3600, "typical_volume": 10135.0, "trend": 50.177221, "fair_value": 45.281841, "relative_strength": -2.121437, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.541616, "energy": 44.510342, "activity_lines": [ 52.388001, 52.409334, 51.861952, 51.036121 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.93, "volume": 16500, "typical_volume": 9795.0, "trend": 50.329888, "fair_value": 45.361916, "relative_strength": -2.285202, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.272032, "energy": 58.80687, "activity_lines": [ 52.858001, 52.688111, 52.157444, 51.278236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }