{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0aaf3af5-1f47-421a-861d-492b444847cb", "symbol": "STAA", "name": "STAAR Surgical Company", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.816, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -1.247, "architecture_energy": 20.364, "architecture_maturity": 51.953, "architecture_confidence": 77.334, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.78, "rotation_up": 14.44, "upward_expansion": 42.33, "deceleration": 85.12, "rotation_down": 44.69, "downward_expansion": 36.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.618, 26.004, 27.148952, 25.913118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.21, "trend_reference": 23.984333, "distance_from_trend": 0.009409, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.898974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.162254, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.711831, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.377133, "excess_performance": 0.189679, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009409, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027973, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.162254, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022434, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147118, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136338, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.377133, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.907921, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5216933, "relative_activity": 1.115272, "balance": 0.907921, "dry_up": 1.13027, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148807, "annualized_volatility": 0.630428, "from_high_reference": -0.325063, "from_low_reference": 0.553417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.984333, "fair_value_reference": 28.898974, "structural_low": 15.585, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.014799, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.058984, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.105312, "worst_return": -0.201775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.162205, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.19222, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025086, "worst_return": -0.311977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.093551, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.299142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004112, "worst_return": -0.457386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 26.44, "volume": 4297746, "typical_volume": 4896880.75, "trend": 23.888333, "fair_value": 29.381667, "relative_strength": -3.653422, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.884168, "energy": 19.813748, "activity_lines": [ 27.620667, 28.450909, 27.758, 25.896495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.38, "volume": 6591786, "typical_volume": 4914775.75, "trend": 23.889333, "fair_value": 29.177179, "relative_strength": -13.427976, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.996743, "energy": 15.035613, "activity_lines": [ 26.054, 27.371091, 27.521905, 25.863699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.36, "volume": 5041897, "typical_volume": 4885841.45, "trend": 23.914667, "fair_value": 29.023397, "relative_strength": -10.432894, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.013533, "energy": 17.465272, "activity_lines": [ 25.196667, 26.627455, 27.355714, 25.894065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.21, "volume": 5216933, "typical_volume": 4677721.6, "trend": 23.984333, "fair_value": 28.898974, "relative_strength": -14.711831, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.246656, "energy": 20.363619, "activity_lines": [ 24.618, 26.004, 27.148952, 25.913118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }