{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ab78de8-014d-405e-bc87-8eb254cc10a9", "symbol": "PSPH", "name": "Amundi PEA S&P 500 UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.515, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.903, "architecture_energy": 55.626, "architecture_maturity": 63.243, "architecture_confidence": 69.303, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.39, "rotation_up": 51.25, "upward_expansion": 79.01, "deceleration": 69.11, "rotation_down": 27.29, "downward_expansion": 8.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.381666, 26.260436, 26.049404, 25.574165 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.08, "trend_reference": 25.048766, "distance_from_trend": 0.081091, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.028001, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287807, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.445213, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115138, "excess_performance": 0.061826, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081091, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029987, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.287807, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005504, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034452, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115138, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.621024, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61155, "relative_activity": 0.728042, "balance": 1.621024, "dry_up": 0.82332, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020299, "annualized_volatility": 0.132973, "from_high_reference": -0.004595, "from_low_reference": 0.2112 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.048766, "fair_value_reference": 21.028001, "structural_low": 22.358, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.014941, "positive_rate": 0.710526, "directional_follow_through": 0.710526, "median_excess_return": 0.01312, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.062768, "worst_return": -0.087552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.025959, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.024145, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.122043, "worst_return": -0.071771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.069503, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.037589, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.164579, "worst_return": -0.16636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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24.7814, "fair_value": 20.77438, "relative_strength": 5.964425, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.287295, "energy": 56.655494, "activity_lines": [ 26.176266, 26.172127, 25.632076, 25.211974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.1, "volume": 86107, "typical_volume": 131649.55, "trend": 24.848467, "fair_value": 20.836117, "relative_strength": 4.54261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.072803, "energy": 52.248339, "activity_lines": [ 26.168, 26.163727, 25.734743, 25.297045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.004999, "volume": 67754, "typical_volume": 106110.85, "trend": 24.903067, "fair_value": 20.896482, "relative_strength": 3.603151, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.616317, "energy": 46.810884, "activity_lines": [ 26.122666, 26.133836, 25.819266, 25.37166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.924999, "volume": 61617, "typical_volume": 88412.6, "trend": 24.9631, "fair_value": 20.957726, "relative_strength": 1.54305, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.750034, "energy": 37.930117, "activity_lines": [ 26.064999, 26.089472, 25.885381, 25.437591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.08, "volume": 61155, "typical_volume": 83999.25, "trend": 25.048766, "fair_value": 21.028001, "relative_strength": 3.445213, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.902749, "energy": 55.62604, "activity_lines": [ 26.381666, 26.260436, 26.049404, 25.574165 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }