{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0abe3fc6-6416-4cf8-a203-371b176ee4c0", "symbol": "WAT", "name": "Amundi MSCI Water UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.655, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 49.905, "architecture_energy": 41.631, "architecture_maturity": 15.226, "architecture_confidence": 68.241, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.44, "rotation_up": 64.89, "upward_expansion": 50.69, "deceleration": 37.63, "rotation_down": 19.94, "downward_expansion": 11.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.206666, 70.777709, 69.710838, 69.586804 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 72.489998, "trend_reference": 69.696934, "distance_from_trend": 0.040074, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.931463, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116408, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.551941, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.016533, "excess_performance": -0.036778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040074, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015297, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.116408, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052989, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015519, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008583, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016533, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.210516, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31057, "relative_activity": 1.76129, "balance": 1.210516, "dry_up": 1.419121, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022745, "annualized_volatility": 0.135812, "from_high_reference": -0.011725, "from_low_reference": 0.111772 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.696934, "fair_value_reference": 64.931463, "structural_low": 65.276001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.000424, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002288, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.042728, "worst_return": -0.086553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014198, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.001582, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111401, "worst_return": -0.042507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010774, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.014236, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.133404, "worst_return": -0.03778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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46.462466, "energy": 42.848288, "activity_lines": [ 69.9716, 68.816563, 68.747124, 69.037718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 70.389999, "volume": 20108, "typical_volume": 17676.85, "trend": 69.146967, "fair_value": 64.523171, "relative_strength": -0.48858, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.673359, "energy": 45.501889, "activity_lines": [ 70.360333, 69.192327, 68.86869, 69.126172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 71.199997, "volume": 30527, "typical_volume": 18037.45, "trend": 69.3101, "fair_value": 64.622043, "relative_strength": 0.697211, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.118933, "energy": 61.284928, "activity_lines": [ 70.814666, 69.698908, 69.07828, 69.258626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.900002, "volume": 16107, "typical_volume": 16750.0, "trend": 69.456434, "fair_value": 64.718754, "relative_strength": -0.091501, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.809298, "energy": 56.224713, "activity_lines": [ 70.927333, 70.088254, 69.268709, 69.3612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.040001, "volume": 22403, "typical_volume": 17032.7, "trend": 69.5767, "fair_value": 64.816057, "relative_strength": -2.720252, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.83237, "energy": 28.54415, "activity_lines": [ 70.634, 70.2388, 69.374186, 69.398849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.489998, "volume": 31057, "typical_volume": 17633.1, "trend": 69.696934, "fair_value": 64.931463, "relative_strength": -1.551941, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.905098, "energy": 41.630993, "activity_lines": [ 71.206666, 70.777709, 69.710838, 69.586804 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }