{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ac0182b-c0e1-4a4d-a34f-00fbab488753", "symbol": "GENUSPAPER", "name": "Genus Paper & Boards Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.182, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.256, "architecture_energy": 16.023, "architecture_maturity": 15.353, "architecture_confidence": 60.302, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.97, "rotation_up": 22.31, "upward_expansion": 14.54, "deceleration": 57.07, "rotation_down": 37.61, "downward_expansion": 62.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.978, 11.927455, 12.223571, 12.229247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.36, "trend_reference": 12.247667, "distance_from_trend": 0.009172, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.585577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.334968, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.493846, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060944, "excess_performance": 0.104653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009172, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049242, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.334968, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036123, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094938, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027034, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060944, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.822935, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 576293, "relative_activity": 1.55486, "balance": 2.822935, "dry_up": 1.593585, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078106, "annualized_volatility": 0.450601, "from_high_reference": -0.402899, "from_low_reference": 0.425606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.247667, "fair_value_reference": 18.585577, "structural_low": 8.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.011338, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.014226, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.140127, "worst_return": -0.155422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.03752, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.081773, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.309028, "worst_return": -0.200449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.156281, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.20235, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.712644, "worst_return": -0.28018, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"trend": 12.335667, "fair_value": 18.665641, "relative_strength": -18.616687, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.146407, "energy": 61.630235, "activity_lines": [ 11.579333, 11.911455, 12.246667, 12.263591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.92, "volume": 1125312, "typical_volume": 372539.85, "trend": 12.294, "fair_value": 18.638205, "relative_strength": -11.265172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.519459, "energy": 53.143804, "activity_lines": [ 11.611333, 11.863818, 12.219286, 12.236774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.08, "volume": 388106, "typical_volume": 368512.5, "trend": 12.262667, "fair_value": 18.613718, "relative_strength": -11.630415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.153587, "energy": 42.080746, "activity_lines": [ 11.747333, 11.862727, 12.209, 12.222968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.36, "volume": 576293, "typical_volume": 370639.7, "trend": 12.247667, "fair_value": 18.585577, "relative_strength": -9.493846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.256262, "energy": 16.02293, "activity_lines": [ 11.978, 11.927455, 12.223571, 12.229247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }