{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ac7f0fd-7044-4e00-bdca-23afa0909200", "symbol": "NORRH", "name": "Norrhydro Group Oyj", "exchange": "HEL", "country": "FI", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^OMXH25", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.544, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.732, "architecture_energy": 12.647, "architecture_maturity": 25.826, "architecture_confidence": 76.283, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.5, "rotation_up": 25.46, "upward_expansion": 18.97, "deceleration": 38.98, "rotation_down": 32.03, "downward_expansion": 57.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.242333, 1.232091, 1.248695, 1.262843 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.285, "trend_reference": 1.284596, "distance_from_trend": 0.000314, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.532003, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161229, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.396987, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.121469, "excess_performance": -0.169687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000314, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000457, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161229, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08397, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 4.8e-05, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121469, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.258677, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64166, "relative_activity": 1.58892, "balance": 0.258677, "dry_up": 0.934029, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079617, "annualized_volatility": 0.377438, "from_high_reference": -0.152845, "from_low_reference": 0.15966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.284596, "fair_value_reference": 1.532003, "structural_low": 1.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.010984, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008438, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.151007, "worst_return": -0.192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.043956, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.046283, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.254237, "worst_return": -0.259434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.09074, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.165254, "worst_return": -0.283784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.585673, "energy": 33.100817, "activity_lines": [ 1.219, 1.229818, 1.261394, 1.278483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.19, "volume": 57716, "typical_volume": 46401.9, "trend": 1.296509, "fair_value": 1.555225, "relative_strength": -14.306201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.163284, "energy": 34.609003, "activity_lines": [ 1.208333, 1.219182, 1.25369, 1.271608 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.21, "volume": 6691, "typical_volume": 38666.0, "trend": 1.295638, "fair_value": 1.547007, "relative_strength": -12.570413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.828561, "energy": 39.537389, "activity_lines": [ 1.206, 1.216182, 1.248602, 1.266027 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 1.25, "volume": 22304, "typical_volume": 38503.5, "trend": 1.288713, "fair_value": 1.538793, "relative_strength": -10.61506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.695195, "energy": 26.617451, "activity_lines": [ 1.217667, 1.220636, 1.247215, 1.263082 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 1.285, "volume": 64166, "typical_volume": 40383.4, "trend": 1.284596, "fair_value": 1.532003, "relative_strength": -8.396987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.731822, "energy": 12.647367, "activity_lines": [ 1.242333, 1.232091, 1.248695, 1.262843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }