{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0acc452c-21d2-4b6f-a818-d7f641e50c3f", "symbol": "002319", "name": "Letong Chemical Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.609, "architecture_energy": 27.382, "architecture_maturity": 38.198, "architecture_confidence": 80.692, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.3, "rotation_up": 23.08, "upward_expansion": 4.97, "deceleration": 54.68, "rotation_down": 41.48, "downward_expansion": 71.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.770667, 10.788364, 11.050095, 11.424796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.48, "trend_reference": 12.022333, "distance_from_trend": -0.04511, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.947949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.039166, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.124109, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.240238, "excess_performance": -0.247638, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04511, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031342, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.039166, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004351, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081241, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12727, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.240238, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.895868, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80773054, "relative_activity": 2.216439, "balance": 0.895868, "dry_up": 1.678818, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117663, "annualized_volatility": 0.513658, "from_high_reference": -0.290482, "from_low_reference": 0.253275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.022333, "fair_value_reference": 11.947949, "structural_low": 9.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.011249, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.024282, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.494175, "worst_return": -0.231969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.124106, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007712, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.540909, "worst_return": -0.202522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.217716, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.007247, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.372727, "worst_return": -0.215134, "sufficient": false }, { 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"fair_value": 12.064295, "relative_strength": -17.873769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.306695, "energy": 57.890792, "activity_lines": [ 10.643333, 10.942364, 11.209571, 11.676946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.76, "volume": 63364754, "typical_volume": 32832087.8, "trend": 12.104333, "fair_value": 12.028782, "relative_strength": -12.219788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.674426, "energy": 32.712308, "activity_lines": [ 10.670667, 10.862909, 11.138095, 11.589011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.12, "volume": 55762543, "typical_volume": 33943549.45, "trend": 12.041, "fair_value": 11.982308, "relative_strength": -15.393447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.558837, "energy": 38.241028, "activity_lines": [ 10.502667, 10.681636, 11.022095, 11.460989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.48, "volume": 80773054, "typical_volume": 36442709.6, "trend": 12.022333, "fair_value": 11.947949, "relative_strength": -8.124109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.609481, "energy": 27.381694, "activity_lines": [ 10.770667, 10.788364, 11.050095, 11.424796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }